The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 16, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
After splitting the first two games, the Phillies will send Taijuan Walker to the hill against the Nats' Cade Cavalli.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Nationals Prediction
- Phillies vs Nationals pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
My Phillies vs Nationals best bet is Over 9.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Nationals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Phillies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) | Stat | RHP Cade Cavalli (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.39 / 4.05 | ERA / xERA | 3.86 / 3.40 |
| 4.85 / 4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86 / 3.92 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 9.9 | K-BB% | 11.6 |
| 45.0 | GB% | 53.3 |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 128 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Phillies vs Nationals Preview
Both offenses have been relatively quiet in this series at Nationals Park, ranked 12th in the best stadiums for run production in BaseballSavant's Park Factors.
The Phillies are 11th in wRC+ this season with a 104 rating and have improved to ninth (106) since July 1st, so they will not stay quiet for long periods, and today they will face Cade Cavalli.
The Nats starter was rocked with four runs in five innings in his last outing and will be making just his third start in 2025 today.
The Washington offense ranks 23rd in wRC+ but has improved to 20th in August, so they are bound to produce as well.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the over in this game.
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments —such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington— tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5).
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters increasing bullpen volatility.
Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals.
This creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular-season games.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110, BetMGM)
