The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 14, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
NL East Rivals Philadelphia and Washington will open up a four-game series Thursday when Jesus Luzardo (4.20 ERA, 11-5) faces off against Brad Lord (3.28 ERA, 3-6). The Phillies have won both of the previous two series this season, and are heavy favorites in Thursday's matchup.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Nationals Prediction
- Phillies vs Nationals pick: Phillies -1.5 -120 (Play to -130)
My Phillies vs Nationals best bet is on the Phillies to cover the run-line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Nationals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -200 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +165 |
Phillies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Brad Lord (WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.20/3.63 | ERA /xERA | 3.28/4.40 |
| 3.05/3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63/3.70 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 12.0% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 49.8% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 84 |
| 109 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Nationals Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Luzardo's Hot Streak Meets Washington's Lefty Woes
Luzardo has been one of the more Jekyll-and-Hyde starters in MLB this season, as he's mixed in numerous blow-up outings, despite looking quite dominant when at his best.
His season-long underlying metrics do suggest he is a quality starter on average, as he holds an xERA of 3.63 and an xFIP of 3.35. He's suffered from a .344 BABIP, despite holding an xBA of .248. He also holds a strong Pitching+ rating of 109 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 18.8% this season.
Luzardo has stabilized of late, as across his last three starts he's pitched to an ERA of 1.89 and allowed a batting average of .197. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 105 and a Pitching+ rating of 123 across those three starts.
The Phillies bullpen projects as one of the better units in MLB, and it holds the lowest xFIP league-wide since July 1st, as well as the second-best strikeout minus walk rate. The bullpen was asked to handle only seven and 2/3 innings during their mid-week series versus the Cincinnati Reds, as only Jordan Romano may be unavailable in this matchup.
The Phillies have been in strong form offensively, as over the last 30 days they hold a wRC+ of 109, a slugging percentage of .450, and rank third in hard-hit rate. Alec Bohm is the only position player on the IL, but could return sometime during this series.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Lord Tries to Defy Underlying Metrics
After spending the rest of the season working in relief, Lord has been effective over the last four games while being used as a traditional starter. He's pitched to an ERA of 2.70 over the last four games, but his process is less convincing, as he holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 11.5% and a Pitching+ rating of 79.
Lord has also allowed an xERA of 4.40 and an xBA of .280 this season, but has outperformed underlying expectations by allowing a batting average of just .186.
The Nationals hold the second-worst run differential in baseball, and ugly results from their bullpen have been a key reason why. Washington's relievers have allowed the highest ERA in MLB this season and also own the worst xFIP. They have remained comparably bad over the last 30 days, pitching to an ERA of 5.68 and an xFIP of 4.58.
Since July 1 the Nationals have held a wRC+ of 91 and rank 26th in hard-hit rate and 27th in BB/K ratio. They have struggled mightily with left-handed pitching during that span, as they own a wRC+ of 80 and have struck out 25.9% of the time.
Dylan Crews is expected to be activated from the 60-day IL ahead of this matchup and could see game action for the first time since May 20.
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies have significant edges across the board in this matchup, and there looks to be value in betting them to snap their two-game losing skid with a comfortable win over a Nationals team sporting a -148 run differential.
Luzardo enters off of three straight quality outings and gets a great matchup versus a Nationals lineup that has hit to anemic splits versus left-handed pitching recently. He will be supported by one of the league's best bullpens, which enters this matchup in a good situation rest-wise.
Lord has been surprisingly effective as a starter so far, but the quality of stuff suggests he may not be an overly effective starter big picture, and this seems like a good time to fade him after a few strong starts. If Lord is able to offer another reasonable outing, the Phillies will still have a good chance of racking up some runs once the league's worst bullpen enters the game.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 -120 (Play to -130)
Moneyline
Betting the Phillies to win at -200 also looks to provide value, and is a perfectly reasonable option if you want to lay a little more juice.
Run Line (Spread)
As outlined, backing the Phillies to cover the run-line is my favorite play from this matchup.
Over/Under
While I'm hopeful that Luzardo can turn in a strong outing in a favorable matchup, my lean would be with the over in terms of betting the total given the expected conditions at Nationals Park, and my lack of faith in Lord and the Nationals bullpen.
Phillies vs Nationals Betting Trends
