Phillies vs Marlins Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under
Pictured: Johnny Cueto. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
The Phillies are a half-game behind the Giants for the top Wild Card spot and a game ahead of the Brewers for the third Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Marlins and Diamondbacks are a half-game back of the final spot.
If that wasn't intriguing enough, the trade deadline also injected new faces into this playoff race.
You'll see some of those new players in this Phillies vs. Marlins game, including Philadelphia's starting pitcher, Michael Lorenzen.
So, enough about the storylines. Let's dig into the matchup. Continue reading for my prediction and best bet for Phillies vs. Marlins.
The Phillies fascinate me.
They're not big hitters and rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ over the past two months. There are several above-average hitters in the lineup, but nobody has superstar numbers. Bryce Harper has been a shade over average and Trea Turner has been a disaster.
The pitching has been excellent. But instead of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the charge, it's been Cristopher Sanchez with a 2.66 ERA across nine starts.
The bullpen, when healthy, is one of the league's best, but Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez have been dealing with ailments. Dominguez is back, Alvarado is not.
Philadelphia has depth. There are no superstars in the lineup, but there are few holes.
Craig Kimbrel's resurgence has been a godsend. He and Greg Soto have helped Philadelphia weather the bullpen injuries and the Phillies are winning close games as a result (22-13 in one-run games, 7-3 in extras).
With the addition of Lorenzen, the Phillies can deploy a six-man rotation with two innings eaters — Wheeler and Nola — at the top.
Also, the Phillies have finally deployed Harper at first base, meaning they can (mercifully) pull Kyle Schwarber from left field. That's an obvious improvement defensively.
Oh no, Kyle Schwarber 😳
After this drop, Marcell Ozuna hit a 2-run HR to put Atlanta up 5-0…
Braves TT over 4.5 ✅pic.twitter.com/jT74IzBR8u
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 22, 2023
Starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Lorenzen boosted his trade value right before the deadline with three stellar, scoreless outings against the A's, Mariners and Royals. He threw 18 2/3 innings of eight-hit ball with 14 strikeouts and six walks during the stretch.
Lorenzen is having his best season in years. He's significantly cut his walk rate and has a 3.58 ERA, but his 4.07 xERA suggests he's still the same guy from a batted-ball perspective.
He's throwing more in the zone (45.7% Zone rate compared to 39.8%), so it makes sense he's walking fewer batters and allowing harder-hit balls.
Ultimately, Lorenzen's four-seam and slider have returned a +17 Statcast Run Value. He's been effective with his top two pitches, and maybe that's enough.
I'm going to guess he'll finish with an ERA of around 4.00, which is probably what the Phillies want from their deadline acquisition.
After winning 20+ one-run games through June, regression hit in July as the Marlins went 9-15 with six losses coming by one or two runs.
Technically, Miami is likely due for more regression as its Pythag win-loss record is 51-57.
I love the moves Miami made at the deadline. The Marlins have the second-most hits in the league (972), but the 26th-most runs. They're also second-to-last in ISO (.134).
Much of that is the Luis Arraez effect, but still, the Marlins need power.
Josh Bell and Jake Burger solve that.
Los @Marlins adquirieron a Jake Burger desde Chicago.
Como acto de bienvenida (y una buena estrategia de mercadeo), las hamburguesas en el estadio costarán $5.
¡Solo por hoy! pic.twitter.com/pdXWAXOWtW
— Daniel Álvarez-Montes (@DanielAlvarezEE) August 2, 2023
Miami's boasted a middling offense for a while, but I think there's more untapped power to be found from Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez and Jorge Soler. Plus, Jazz Chisholm is back in action.
Arraez will keep getting on base, the Marlins just need to get him home.
Don't overlook this bullpen, which ranks fifth in xFIP on the season (3.94) and 10th over the past month.
David Robertson blew a save opportunity in his first appearance with Miami (the first time he'd given up more than three runs this year), but that acquisition only adds to a strong core.
Starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto (RHP)
I don't think there's a large enough sample accurately evaluate Cueto.
The right-hander has 13 strikeouts to two walks over his past two starts, but those came against the Rockies and Tigers.
For what it's worth, Cueto's fastball velocity is up a tick since his return. He was sitting 93 mph against the Rockies and recorded a whopping 14 Whiffs on the pitch.
Again, the sample size is small, so I don't want to draw many conclusions.
Phillies vs Marlins Betting Pick
I'm probably going to look to the under here.
These are two below-average offenses over the past month, and their numbers get worse against right-handed pitching.
We can also bank on run prevention in the later innings as both teams boast solid bullpens that have been elite at times this season.
The key will be the starting pitchers playing up their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.
Cueto needs to have success with his fastball, while Lorenzen needs to stay in the strike zone and avoid hard-hit balls.
These are two fastball pitchers going up against poor fastball-hitting lineups. The Marlins and Phillies are both bottom-five lineups against four-seamers by xwOBA this year, so let's target the under.
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