The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 25, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +117 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
My Pirates vs Brewers best bet is on the Milwaukee moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +154 | 8 -110o / -110u | +117 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -185 | 8 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Pirates vs Brewers moneyline: Pirates +117, Brewers -140
- Pirates vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+154 ), Pirates +1.5 (-185)
Pirates vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.79/3.51 | ERA / xERA | 3.04/2.89 |
| 3.30/4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 3.62/2.79 |
| 8.7% | K-BB% | 27.0% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 40.7% |
| .259 | BABIP | .260 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 119 |
| 100 | Location+ | 89 |
Pirates vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates (15-11) enter Saturday’s contest looking to clinch a series victory at American Family Field after a dominant 6-0 shutout on Friday night.
Paul Skenes was the story of the opener, nearly tossing a no-hitter through seven innings. Today, the Pirates turn to Mitch Keller (2-1, 2.79 ERA) to keep the momentum alive. Keller has been the model of consistency for Pittsburgh, coming off a strong seven-inning performance against the Rays, where he allowed just two runs.
While the Pirates sit third in the division, their 5-2 record in divisional play suggests they are a live dog whenever they face an NL Central foe.
The Milwaukee Brewers (13-12) find themselves in a bit of a rut, currently enduring a three-game losing skid. The offense was stifled on Friday, but the underlying metrics suggest they are due for a breakout. Milwaukee currently ranks 6th in MLB in runs per game (5.17) and 4th in on-base percentage (.341).
They will hand the ball to high-ceiling prospect Jacob Misiorowski (1-2, 3.04 ERA). Despite his losing record, Misiorowski has been a strikeout machine, racking up 42 punchouts in just 26.2 innings. If he can harness his command against a Pirates lineup that can be prone to the swing-and-miss, Milwaukee has a clear path to ending its slide.
Pirates vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Our BetLabs "Market Movers in Conference Clashes" system focuses on divisional games where the "sharp" money quietly nudges the favorite further into the spotlight. The Brewers ML fits every criteria for this matchup.
This system tracks modest favorites in conference games where the market slightly shifts toward them, often due to subtle edge signals not captured by public models: Conference games bring familiarity and tighter matchups. Minor moneyline movement (−33 to −1) from open to close shows quiet but meaningful sharp action.
The Pythagorean advantage (1.6% to 500%) confirms the underlying team quality without large margins in the prior game. Opening lines between −145 and −115 suggest limited public interest, which can create pricing inefficiencies. Totals between 7 and 9.5 help avoid extremes that can skew results. The strategy rides light market momentum in tight, competitive spots where fundamental metrics signal a long-term edge.
The Brewers opened as a -130 favorite and have seen the line move to -140. This 10-cent shift fits the system’s requirement of a -33 to -1 movement. It indicates that despite the Brewers losing 6-0 yesterday and being on a losing streak, the professional market is backing them to bounce back.
While the Brewers have a .520 winning percentage, their run differential (124 runs scored, 101 allowed) suggests they should be winning closer to 59% of their games. This "Pythagorean advantage" of over 7% confirms that Milwaukee’s underlying team quality is higher than its recent results show.
The opening line of -130 falls perfectly within the system's sweet spot, as lines are often ignored by the public. With a total set at 8, this game avoids the "extreme" scoring environments that can lead to high-variance outcomes, allowing fundamental pitching and hitting metrics to carry more weight.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
