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Pirates vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet the Total in Miami (Monday, July 11)

Pirates vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet the Total in Miami (Monday, July 11) article feature image
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Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Keller

  • The Pirates travel to Miami to open up a four-game series against the Marlins.
  • Mitch Keller gets the start for the Pirates and Trevor Rogers will take the mound for the Marlins.
  • Tony Sartori is anticipating a low-scoring game and shares his best bet below.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds

Pirates Odds +134
Marlins Odds -158
Over/Under 8 (-106/-114)
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this four-game series as the NL East‘s Miami Marlins host the NL Central‘s Pittsburgh Pirates. This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.

Will we get a high-scoring affair in Miami, or will the pitching steal the show?

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Pittsburgh Pirates: Can Keller Spin Another Gem?

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this series amidst a flurry of low-scoring games as there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in six of their past eight contests. I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Mitch Keller is slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh.

Through 16 appearances this season, Keller is 2-6 with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. While those numbers are obviously poor, Keller’s recent form has been solid as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his past nine appearances.

However, I do not think this pitching staff will get much run support in this game as the Pirates are slated to go against left-hander Trevor Rogers. Since June 1st, the Pirates rank just 28th in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 27th in OPS and 27th in wOBA.

Through 11 career plate appearances against Rogers, this current Pirates roster possesses a mere .111 BA, .111 SLG, and .157 wOBA.

Miami Marlins: Where has the Offense Gone?

Like Pittsburgh, the Miami Marlins have seen many low-scoring games lately as there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in eight of their past 12 contests. I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Trevor Rogers is slated to take the mound.

Through 16 starts this season, Rogers is 4-7 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Despite these poor stats, Rogers’ pitching has improved recently as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts.

Because of these improved performances, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in three of those four outings.  Another reason for these low-scoring games has been the awful hitting.

Over their past 10 contests, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game.

Pirates-Marlins Pick

I am riding the trends here and taking the under in this game. I believe we are getting a great number (8) because of the poor surface-level stats of each starting pitcher.

However, both have been throwing the ball better of late and are going against two beatable lineups. While I like the under at eight, I would rather lay some extra juice than take 7.5 if the market moves before first pitch.

Pick: Pirates/Marlins u8 (-114) | Play up to (-130)

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