Pirates vs Marlins Odds, Prediction | Expert MLB Pick (Friday)
Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Puk
Pirates vs Marlins Odds, Prediction | Expert MLB Pick (Friday)
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -113o / -107u | +117 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -113o / -107u | -137 |
The latest Pirates vs Marlins odds for Friday, March 29, have the Marlins installed as -137 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 8. Finding the best number on the moneyline is key to my Pirates vs Marlins prediction, as I like Miami to bounce back behind starter A.J. Puk.
Surprisingly, the Pirates and Marlins played one of the best games of Opening Day. Pittsburgh mounted a three-run comeback and won the game in extras.
If you look at the market movement heading into Thursday, it's clear the Pirates were not getting enough respect. They moved around 15 cents before the close, but on Friday, the lines are set to close around the same number.
Veteran Martin Perez will get the ball for the Pirates. The left-hander comes over from the defending World Series champion Rangers, but after his sub-par regular season kept him out of the postseason rotation, a change of scenery was needed. As for the Marlins, Puk is making the transition to the rotation after mainly working as a reliever in his MLB career.
The Pirates' bats came to life late yesterday, and it shouldn't be a shock that this lineup got it going, as it is flooded with young talent. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz both went yard, but they only make up a third of the bats in the order that had an above-average hard-hit rate last season.
While the theme of this lineup will be the young hitters making strides with the veterans providing consistency, we should see them cool off against the Marlins southpaw tonight. Puk earned his spot in the rotation after a dominant season in pen last year, which he followed up with an even better spring training.
Puk struck out 23 batters over nearly 14 innings of work this spring and had a BAA of .131. This dominance aligns with the metrics we saw last season, as he ranked in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 95th percentile in strikeout rate.
We should see Puk go at least five innings tonight, as the bullpen could use some rest. We saw him get stretched out to that length despite being highly efficient with his pitch count.
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The Marlins' lineup got off to a hot start yesterday, and plenty of guys got in on the action. Jake Burger led the way by driving in three of the team's five runs, and new shortstop Tim Anderson doubled in a run. He and Luis Arraez will look to form one of the best middle infield combos in baseball.
Much like the Pirates, this Marlins' lineup has tremendous upside. They have table setters, power bats and two budding stars in Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. They will put up runs; the questions lie with their pitching staff, but they should give Puk plenty of support against Martin Perez.
Perez pitched himself out for the Rangers' postseason rotation last year, holding a 4.45 ERA over 35 appearances, 20 of which were starts. He struggled to miss bats, ranking in the 5th percentile in strikeout rate and the 2nd percentile in whiff rate.
That only compounded the loud contact he gave up and ultimately put him in the bottom fifth of the league in xERA and xBA.
Pirates vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Pirates won the first game of this series, but this second match favors the Marlins. Puk should provide a quality outing on the hill while he receives plenty of early support.
Miami's bullpen struggled yesterday, but it is it better shape today than Pittsburgh's. Expect the Marlins to have better fortune today and help secure the win.
Back the Fish tonight.
Pick: Marlins ML -125 (Play to -140)
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