Red Sox vs Mariners Odds, Pick Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Red Sox vs Mariners on Friday, March 29 — including odds and a prediction.

The Opening Day matchup between these two squads provided some fireworks as the Red Sox took home the 6-4 victory in a game that saw four home runs between the two squads. 

With a questionable starting rotation, the Red Sox will be leaning on their offense if they want to avoid missing the playoffs again. It does seem that this group has some pop in their bats that may be good enough to compete with the top of the American League if their arms can hold up well enough.

Boston already put their stellar lineup on display Thursday night and this is a unit I like looking too again on Friday to see if they can extend this hot start.

Here's my Red Sox vs Mariners pick and prediction.

Boston’s lineup was impressive last night as its 11 hits were spread across the entire lineup. Every starter recorded at least one hit for the Red Sox, and this is a continuing trend from last season where the Red Sox ranked eighth in the majors in wOBA vs right-handed pitchers.

Luis Castillo was only able to make it through five innings and allowed four runs before the Red Sox chased him out. Known for his high strikeout rate, Castillo was only able to rack up five strikeouts last night, which should bode well for the team tonight as they face a starter with stuff that isn’t quite as potent.

Nick Pivetta has shown flashes of his bat-missing ability before, but it comes and goes in spurts. Whenever Pivetta gets hit, though, he does tend to get hit hard. 

In 2023, he ranked in the second percentile in Barrel% and the 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. Luckily for him, he is facing a lineup that has quite a bit of swing and miss. Last season, Seattle had the second-highest strikeout rate vs. RHPs at 25.8%, so there is upside for a big night from Pivetta, but there is also plenty of risk the other direction.

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George Kirby will take the mound for Seattle on Friday night. With another right-hander on the bump, I would expect that we would see mostly the same lineup on Boston’s side. 

Kirby isn’t known for being a high-volume strikeout pitcher and against this Red Sox lineup that ranked in the top half of the league last year in strikeout rate against right-handers, the Red Sox will be putting plenty of balls into play.

Kirby’s main superpower as a pitcher is avoiding walks. He was in the top percentile for walks allowed last season. However, as with Pivetta, he does allow hard contact. Kirby ranked in the 38th percentile in hard hit rate and had a 32nd percentile expected slugging percentage allowed.

The Red Sox have an advantage in this matchup offensively. This is a lineup that hits right-handed pitchers well. Combine this with some of Kirby’s hard contact metrics and I think that we could see Boston repeat Thursday night’s offensive performance.

With the wide range of outcomes that Pivetta could provide, I’m looking to keep this bet focused on the Boston offense. For that reason, I like taking the Red Sox at over 3.5 runs tonight. You can find this at +118 and I would take it down as low as +110.

Pick: Red Sox Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (+118 at FanDuel) | Bet to +110