MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Friday, March 29
Getty Images
MLB best bets for Friday, March 29 includes five bets for four games from MLB's 10-game slate.
Our analysts have picks on Brewers vs Mets, Braves vs Phillies, Giants vs Padres and Rockies vs Diamondbacks.
Here are our MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Friday, March 29, 2024.
MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Friday, March 29
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:40 p.m. | ||
| 3:05 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs. Mets
We have to bet on Freddy Peralta this year.
Across his final 11 starts of 2023, Milwaukee’s new ace posted a 2.44 ERA, 39% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. He didn’t walk a single guy in six of those starts and struck out double-digit batters in four.
He didn’t even run that well! A .268 BABIP during the stretch isn’t crazy low. That’s insane.
The Stuff+ model clocked three of his pitches in over 105. His fastball generated a 14% swinging-strike rate, and his slider a 21%. His slider posted a 46% whiff rate.
I can’t say enough about how good Peralta is at his best, and I fully expect him to ride this momentum into a monster Opening Day start.
It’s hard to gauge what we’ll get out of the Mets lineup this season, but I can’t imagine it’ll be much better than the league average. And the Mets struggled against fastball-slider mixes last year (-7.5 weighted fastball runs created, 23rd among MLB lineups; -8.4 weighted slider runs created, 13th), which doesn’t bode well against Fastball Freddy when he’s attempting a rebrand to Slider Freddy.
Projecting the Brewers' lineup this year is similarly challenging, but it’s hard to project Jose Quintana as great. Projections have him in the 4.20-to-4.60 ERA range, more than a half-run worse than Peralta.
It’s worth mentioning that the Brewers profile better against southpaws. They're projected to have eight righties in the Opening Day lineup, and their wRC+ was eight points higher against that side (98) than against righties (90).
Quintana is not immune to platoon splits. His wOBA allowed is 30 points higher against righties (.273 to .303), and his walk rate jumps five whole percentage points (3% to 8%).
Ultimately, I want to buy Peralta, and I think the matchup is favorable enough to back the Brewers.
At least in the first half. I don’t want to get involved with the bullpens, considering Milwaukee lost Devin Williams while New York got Edwin Diaz back.
Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-110)
Braves vs. Phillies
By William Boor
There’s plenty to love about both of these teams and I’ll likely be betting on both often throughout the season, but on Opening Day, I’m backing the Braves.
The Braves, who have won over 100 games in each of the past two seasons, got off to a fast start last season (18-9 in March and April), and I’m expecting them to do so again.
After finishing second in the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year voting, Spencer Strider emerged as an ace in 2023. The 25-year-old right hander went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA and racked up 281 strikeouts over 186 2/3 innings. Additionally, he has a 1.90 ERA over eight regular-season appearances against the Phillies.
The Phillies have beat the Braves in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, but we’ll worry about that in October. For now, I’m concerned with the fact that Philadelphia was just 15-14 in March/April in 2023 and 11-11 in April in 2022. For whatever reason, despite being loaded with talent, the Phillies start a bit slow.
Zack Wheeler, who went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA last season, will be making his first career Opening Day start.
NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. is set to lead off for the Braves and typically thrives in this spot.
Acuna hit .379 with eight homers as the first batter of the game last season. If he’s able to get on base, that’ll make Wheeler’s job much tougher against Austin Riley, Matt Olson and the rest of the Braves lineup.
With Acuna atop the order and Strider on the mound, I have a hard time betting against Atlanta. The Phillies are at home, but I’m backing the Braves on Opening Day.
Pick: Braves ML (-125)
Giants vs. Padres
By Tony Sartori
Kyle Harrison facied some challenges in his debut season last year, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in seven starts. His analytics were even worse, and while he did not officially qualify, the left-hander would have ranked among the bottom half of all pitchers in xERA, average exit velocity, Barrel%, Chase% and Whiff%.
One of those seven starts came against San Diego, a game in which Harrison got shelled as he surrendered four homers while allowing six runs on six hits in fewer than six innings. The core of that group that faced Harrison last year are all still here (besides Juan Soto), and through those 14 plate appearances, they posted a dominating .343 xBA, .652 xSLG and .457 xwOBA.
Now, to be fair to Harrison, the Padres boast one of the stronger lineups in baseball. Last season, they finished in the top half of the league in SLG, OPS and wOBA.They also rank in the top half of the league in all three of those categories to begin this season as well, granted it is only a three-game sample size thus far.
Now is a great time to buy low on Joe Musgrove, considering he just got shelled by Los Angeles in the Korea Series. With all due respect to San Francisco's lineup, it is nowhere near the level of the Dodgers'.
Through 138 career plate appearances against Musgrove, this current Giants lineup possesses a fade-worthy .190 xBA, .302 xSLG and .248 xwOBA. The Padres boast the stronger pitcher, lineup and bullpen, and I think it's worth taking a shot on them to cover -1.5 at +143 once again given that they beat Harrison 6-1 last year and have won by at least two runs in each of their two wins this season.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 (+143)
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Well, it looks like the Rockies are going completely uncompetitive this season after getting hammered on Opening Day. Turning things over to Cal Quantrill should not give them any more confidence.
Quantrill was always someone who drastically overperformed his advanced metrics, but last season it finally caught up with him. He posted a 5.24 ERA, but his expected metrics were actually worse with his xERA being at 5.85 and his xFIP at 5.43.
The problem that Quantrill has run into and why he was always due to implode is because his stuff isn’t great and he has one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball. In spring training he threw 15 1/3 innings and only struck out five batters.
He’ll be facing an Arizona lineup that is much better against righties than lefties and can platoon a high number of left-handed bats to get in a split advantage against Quantrill, who allowed a .370 wOBA to lefties last season.
Merrill Kelly is the definition of an average MLB starting pitcher. There really isn’t anything special about him, but he’s solid in all areas except for one: control. Last season, he allowed a 3.50 BB/9 rate and when he falls behind in the count things tend to get worse and worse for him.
When pitching with a 1-0 count or worse, he’s allowing well over a .350 wOBA and two of his main pitches of fastball and cutter are basically the only two pitches the Rockies had any success against last season.
I have 9.6 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -120.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
By Cody Goggin
Merrill Kelly saw the highest strikeout rate of his career in 2023 as he jumped up to 25.9%. However, I think that this season we see him fall back closer to his career average of around 22%.
The 35-year old is typically reliable enough to pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, but the strikeouts aren’t always there. His current total is set at 6.5, which is a bit on the higher end for me as I project him closer to 5 or 5.5.
Last night, we saw the Rockies only strike out three times in five innings against Zac Gallen while only striking out six times in the entire game.
Kelly ranked just 37th out of 44 qualifying starters last year in Stuff+. By most metrics, he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff and gets by largely on just locating pitches.
Kelly is a fine pitcher and seems to have found something in this later stage of his career, but this is still a relatively high strikeout prop for someone of his makeup as a pitcher.
I like taking under 6.5 strikeouts for Kelly tonight and would take this as high as -135.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135 or Better)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
