The Minnesota Twins (46-48) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (38-57) on July 12, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
After a 2-1 finish in Game 1, the Pirates and Twins clash for Saturday’s Game 2 with the total set at 9 runs. Minnesota is priced as a -150 moneyline favorite, while Pittsburgh sits at +125. The Twins are also favored on the run line at -1.5.
Find our MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Pirates vs Twins Prediction
- Pirates vs Twins picks: Under 9 (+100)
Our Pirates vs Twins best bet is on the Under 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Twins Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Pirates vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) | Stat | TBD (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | — |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 3.63/4.00 | ERA / xERA | — |
| 4.52/3.91 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 1.31 | WHIP | — |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | — |
| 35.7% | GB% | — |
| 92 | Stuff+ | — |
| 98 | Location+ | — |
Pirates vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Friday’s opener was a tight affair: Trevor Larnach’s two-run homer was the difference as Joe Ryan outdueled Paul Skenes. It marked the Pirates' seventh straight loss and underscored how both teams are struggling to put up runs consistently.
A scary collision at second base forced Carlos Correa to leave with a mild ankle sprain, and while the Twins' shortstop avoided serious injury, he will sit out Saturday’s matchup and could rest through the weekend.
Mike Burrows is expected to get the start for Pittsburgh, while Minnesota has yet to announce its Game 2 starter.
Tommy Pham remains hot for the Pirates, entering the series with a .444 average and seven extra-base hits over the past 13 games.
On the Twins’ side, Ryan Jeffers has quietly produced an 8-for-14 stretch across his last four starts.
But the strongest case for betting this total comes from Evan Abrams' "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games" system.
This model targets regular-season games in the second or later installment of a series following low-scoring openers. The theory is simple: when offenses stall early in a series, especially before any drastic lineup changes or pitching fatigue sets in, that trend is likely to persist.
With both clubs showing limited output and Saturday’s line holding steady at 9, this matchup fits the model for continued offensive stagnation.
Pick: Under 9 (+100)
Pirates vs Twins Betting Trends
