PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Play for Friday: How to Fade Braves’ Ian Anderson (June 24)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Anderson.
- Ian Anderson and the Braves face the Dodgers tonight in Atlanta.
- In what is a highly anticipated matchup with Freddie Freeman returning to face his former team, PropBetGuy is fading Anderson.
- Check out his pick and analysis below.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120)
|Prop||Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120)|
|Matchup||Dodgers vs. Braves|
|Time||7:20 p.m. ET|
We’ve got a fun weekend of baseball ahead of us with several intriguing series matchups – one of which is a rematch of last season’s NLCS between the Dodgers and Braves. Tonight, Ian Anderson toes the slab for Atlanta, and I’m looking to fade him in what should be a tough spot.
Anderson has had an up-and-down third year in the big leagues, pitching to a 4.35 ERA, and a 5.84 ERA at home. He’s struggled mightily the third time through the batting order, allowing a Yordan Alvarez-like OPS of 1.100. The Braves bullpen has been one of baseball’s best (3.09 ERA – fifth-lowest), and consequently, Anderson has seen quick hooks when he gets in trouble deeper into games.
I also like the Dodgers to drive up Anderson’s pitch count. The right-hander throws an average of 3.99 pitches per plate appearance, which is 25th-highest out of 112 qualified starters, and his Strike Percentage is the 10th-lowest (61.4%). As a team, the Dodgers have the lowest Chase Rate in baseball, which has led them to see the second-most pitches per at bat.
This means Anderson will have to throw more strikes to keep his pitch count down. But if he does, he should be hit hard by a Dodgers team that has the highest OPS against righties (.776) and the fourth-highest Hard Hit Rate.
It’s a tough matchup for Anderson tonight – I have him only finishing five full innings.
Pick: Ian Anderson Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120) | Play to (-140)
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