The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on April 28, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN+.
The Red Sox are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick: Under 7.5 Runs
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -115 |
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline: Red Sox -105, Blue Jays -115
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+162), Blue Jays +1.5 (-190)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) | Stat | RHP Trey Yesavage (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | Season Debut |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 1.50/0.94 | ERA / xERA | — |
| 2.13/1.16 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 45.5% | K-BB% | — |
| 30.0% | GB% | — |
| .222 | BABIP | — |
| 115 | Stuff+ | — |
| 96 | Location+ | — |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Editor’s note: This article was transcribed from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
The Red Sox arrive in Toronto following a dominant 5-0 shutout victory in the series opener, a game that perfectly encapsulated the "new look" Boston squad under interim manager Chad Tracy. Despite the organizational shake-up following Alex Cora's departure, the Sox have won three straight, largely on the back of stellar pitching.
Tonight, they hand the ball to Payton Tolle, who has been a revelation in the early season. Tolle enters with a sparkling 1.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. His peripherals are even more staggering: he is currently striking out batters at a 16.5 K/9 clip. His 97-mph fastball has been nearly unhittable, sporting a .050 xwOBA. If Tolle can maintain his command (only one walk in his last start), he is primed to stifle a Toronto lineup that has struggled to find consistency.
The Blue Jays are looking to bounce back after being held to just two hits in yesterday's shutout loss. The offense, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.330 AVG), has shown flashes of brilliance but often goes quiet against high-velocity lefties—a profile that Tolle fits perfectly.
On the mound, Toronto turns to Trey Yesavage. While he was recently on the 15-day IL for a shoulder impingement, he returns tonight with a respectable 3.21 ERA. Yesavage is a "traffic" pitcher; he strikes out plenty of hitters (10.3 K/9) but walks too many (4.5 BB/9).
However, the Rogers Centre remains a neutral-to-pitcher-friendly environment (1.00 Park Factor), and Yesavage has historically performed better at home where the crowd can help him navigate those high-leverage, bases-loaded jams.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
This is one of the pitching matchups I'm most looking forward to tonight. Yesavage and Tolle are two of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Tolle has actually put up really solid career numbers thus far. There's a limited sample, but he's on 3.5 xERA 3.2 xFIP, 22% K-BB, 115 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+
Yesavage is the bigger Intrigue because he's coming off a shoulder injury from spring training. His numbers in his minor league rehab starts were not particularly good.
However, I do think he's going to be a lot better at home than he is on the road. Most teams in baseball now have the Trajekt pitching machine that helps their hitters prepare for the games, which gives you a more direct arm angle of where the pitcher is actually releasing from. Yesavage had the most dramatic over-the-top delivery last year. It was a 65-degree arm angle with a 7.1-foot release point, which means he's releasing the ball closer to home plate, but also from a higher angle than anybody else.
As a result, he creates a downward movement on his pitches that emphasizes his splitter and produces a ton of ride on his fastball.
On the road, with teams unable to prepare for them as well, you're going to have a much easier time seeing a unique arm like his than you would with other guys who are just more average in terms of release points or movement, et cetera.
There are obviously worries with his injuries, but he still projects around a league-average starter's range.
Beyond that, these bullpens are in decent shape, and these are two of my top three defensive teams, along with the Cubs. In any game the Red Sox and Jays play, I'm probably gonna lean under just because of the defensive value my model measures.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs
