Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Picks: Bet Monday’s Short Underdog
Kavin Mistry/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers and Justin Turner.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds
|Red Sox Odds|
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The Seattle Mariners have stacked together three straight series wins and will return home to face a red-hot Boston team that is making a push for a playoff spot. Will Nick Pivetta continue to trend in the right direction, or will George Kirby turn things around?
Let's break this one down in our Red Sox vs. Mariners preview and prediction.
The Red Sox are starting to heat back up. Yeah, they own a 99 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but a team that has been built around contact hitting is back batting .259 over that span with a steadily improving strikeout rate. They put up 12 runs in two games against a strong Braves pitching staff and held their own against the Giants.
Now, they'll take aim at yet another stable of good pitchers.
Pivetta should provide the offense with some help here. While it wasn't the prettiest of beginnings to the season, the right-hander has posted a 1.29 ERA in the month of July after allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings back in June.
While he's been great, it's important to note that all of these outings — even one where he threw six no-hit innings — have come out of the bullpen.
Pivetta clearly had some issues starting games, as evidenced by the fact that his ERA plummeted as soon as he was moved to the bullpen, but in theory this should be a good matchup for him against a struggling Mariners offense.
There is no metric that can predict if Pivetta's demons will return once he heads back to the hill to start, but his excellence as a long man out of the bullpen has certainly offered some reason for hope.
He hasn't been moved in and out of the bullpen, but George Kirby has effectively been the anti-Pivetta this year. He came out of the gates hot with a 2.93 ERA in April and a 3.12 ERA in May, but he's regressed big time over the last two months.
He is just one start removed from throwing seven shutout innings against the Twins with 10 strikeouts, but that outing is sandwiched between two where he allowed at least five earned runs.
One thing that's remained constant over the last three months is that Kirby has been extremely prone to the home run, which can happen when someone throws so many strikes. Kirby's career barrel rate still sits firmly above 8%, and while he's done a good job racking up strikeouts he's going to need to climb further towards 30% if he really wants to mask his issues with home runs.
He's struck out 22.6% of the batters he's faced this year, which is 0.5 points above the league average but 1.9 points lower than where he was last year.
The Mariners have finally started to hit the ball over the last two weeks, posting a 119 wRC+ with a beefy .204 ISO, but they've also struck out in 27.9% of plate appearances. That's been a constant theme this season for Seattle.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Betting Pick
The Red Sox have been cutting back on the strikeouts over the last few weeks and have posted a very respectable .172 ISO in the last two weeks of play. I'm not confident this is a great matchup for Kirby, who has been searching for his strikeout touch and has been torched by home runs all year long.
On the other side of things, Pivetta has also struggled with home runs but his 29.4% strikeout rate should really play up against one of the worst teams in the league in that department. Seattle has hit a ton of homers lately, but it has also continued to be incredibly undisciplined at the plate.
Boston really deserves to be favored in this game despite playing in Seattle, so I'll happily take the Red Sox at plus money.