Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction | MLB Odds, Picks Today
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Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds
Hunter Greene's return from the Injured List as he allowed 8 earned runs in three innings against the Blue Jays. Well, he'll look to bounce back in a matchup versus another highly touted young pitcher in Brandon Pfaadt, who has struggled to a 6.13 ERA across 61 2/3 innings.
Continue reading for a full breakdown and a Reds vs. Diamondbacks prediction and betting pick.
Hunter Greene's hip injury came at an especially frustrating time, as the 24-year-old flamethrower was in the midst of a strong run on a side pushing for the division. He had pitched to a 3.12 ERA across 17 and 1/3 innings in June.
Overall this season, Greene owns a 4.01 xERA and an xFIP of 4.09. His 30.4% K-rate is in the league's 90th percentile, but that strength has been erased by his 1.65 HR/9, leading to his disappointing 4.72 ERA. His arsenal rates extremely well with a Stuff+ of 125 and a Location+ mark of 103.
Greene's fastball velo averaged just a tick above 98 mph in his outing versus Toronto. That mark is down from where it was early in the year, but it is consistent with his marks throughout his dominant June.
With a number of regular starters on the IL, the Reds offense has tailed off significantly over the last 30 days. They own a 25th ranked wRC+ of 85. They have struck out more than any other team in the league over that span at 29%.
Similar to the young Reds, Arizona's offense has tailed off significantly over the last 30 days with a wRC+ of 85. That mark has trended up during their surge over the last 10 games, however, and their BB/K of 0.41 suggests a far better process than the visiting Reds — as does their 13th-ranked hard-hit rate of 34.4%.
While it is tough for young pitchers to break in and succeed right away at the top level, Brandon Pfaadt's overall 6.13 ERA is a disappointment, but he has started to find success with an ERA of 2.96 across 24 and 2/3 innings in August.
Relative to the rest of the league, his stuff rates well, as he owns a Stuff+ of 104 and a Location+ of 103. His average fastball spin-rate ranks 11th league-wide among starters to have thrown over 50 innings. He owns an xERA of 5.13 and an xFIP of 4.72.
If Pfaadt should falter early, the Diamondbacks should have most bullpen options available. They had an off day Wednesday and only needed two innings of relief yesterday after Merrill Kelly's strong seven-inning outing. Their bullpen has pitched to a 13th-ranked xFIP of 4.22 over the last 30 days.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these pitchers came into the league highly touted based upon their high quality stuff, and while neither has put it all together often, both are better than their season ERAs suggest. Pfaadt in particular is clearly figuring it out.
Greene had a disastrous return from injury vs Toronto, but he could bounce back versus an Arizona offense that is quietly in the league's bottom quarter over the last 30 days. The Reds' depleted offense has not been in good form over that time either and remains a quietly easy matchup, even if their tear to the top of the division makes that easy to forget.
Both bullpens have been solid and the Diamondbacks are an elite defensive side. Considering the form of these offenses, a total of 9.5 is a slight toward the potential of both Pfaadt and Greene.
Betting under 9.5 at anything better than -125 holds value in this matchup.
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