The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on May 3, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Reds are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates Pick: Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is on Lowe to record 1+ HR. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -100 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +173 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -120 |
- Reds vs Pirates moneyline: Reds -100, Pirates -120
- Reds vs Pirates over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Reds vs Pirates spread: Reds -1.5 (+173), Pirates +1.5 (-200)
Reds vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Chase Burns | Stat | Braxton Ashcraft |
|---|---|---|
| 20-13 | W-L | 18-16 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.65 / 3.37 | ERA / xERA | 3.71 / 2.80 |
| 3.83 / 3.30 | FIP / xFIP | 3.15 / 3.43 |
| 19.7 | K-BB% | 19.6 |
| 47.6 | GB% | 47.1 |
| .259 | BABIP | .289 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Reds vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Pirates slugger Brandon Lowe for 0.27 home runs, giving us an 8% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 0.5, which is good enough to tag the Over with a B- grade in our system.
Reds vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Lowe will face a Reds pitching staff that has been vulnerable to power, and he brings legitimate home run upside into this matchup. He already has eight home runs on the season and remains a consistent threat to leave the yard when he gets a pitch to drive.
While he’s only cleared this number once in his last five games, that’s the nature of home run props — production can come in bursts, and Lowe has already shown he has the ability to deliver. Against a staff that can allow hard contact, this is a favorable spot for him to go deep.
Pick: Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs
