MLB Odds & Picks for Reds vs. Yankees: Expect Another Upset? (July 14)

Reds vs. Yankees Odds

The Yankees managed to pull out an extra-innings one-run victory over the Reds Wednesday night, but New York hasn't been as sharp recently as it was prior to the calendar flipping over to July.

The Yankees are 5-5 over their last 10 games, but still have the best record in all of baseball and hold a commanding 14-game lead in the American League Eastern division.

The Reds are 6-4 over their last 10 games, but sit in last place 15.5 games out of first place in the National League Central division entering play Thursday.

Who will get the job done in the rubber match of this interleague series tonight?

Can Cincy Get to Scuffling Cortes?

The Reds lineup had no problem with Luis Severino Wednesday night. At one point, Cincinnati homered in three consecutive at-bats against Severino, but their bullpen couldn't hold the lead.

They'll face Nestor Cortes here. Cortes has a 2.74 ERA this year, but also a 4.39 xFIP. He failed to make it out of the fourth inning in his last start on the road against Boston.

Cortes has pitched better at home this year as he has a 2.01 ERA in 40 1/3 innings at Yankees Stadium compared to a 3.35 ERA in 48 1/3 innings on the road. He hasn't pitched well recently, though, as he has a 5.34 ERA over his last six starts.

Cortes has completed six innings just once in his last six starts and he's allowed nine home runs. Over that span, opposing batters are hitting .274/.315/.564 against him.

While Cortes will represent the Yankees next week playing for the American League in the All-Star Game, his season is already trending in the wrong direction.

Brandon Drury and Kyle Farmer each have ISOs above .300 against left-handed pitching this year and are the prime candidates to take Cortes deep in this one. Tommy Pham has a .192 ISO against left-handed pitching this year and is also a home run threat in this matchup.

Castillo Gives Reds Edge

Luis Castillo has a career 3.64 ERA, but he has a 2.92 ERA this year as well as 74 strikeouts in 71 innings. Castillo has a 3.68 xFIP and 50% ground ball percentage this year.

Comparing that to Cortes, who has a 4.39 xFIP and just a 32% groundball percentage, it seems like Castillo has the clear edge on the mound here.

Of course, these offenses aren't on the same level as the Yankees are fourth in all of baseball averaging 4.91 runs per game at home while the Reds are 27th in all of baseball averaging 3.45 runs per game on the road this year.

While the Yankees have a lot of power in their lineup, Castillo should be able to mitigate that by keeping the ball on the ground for the most part. He's allowed a .137 ISO to left-handed hitters compared to .086 ISO allowed to right-handed hitters.

Lefties Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter and Joey Gallo are the best Yankees left-handed hitters at getting the ball in the air as each of them have a fly ball percentage above 50% against right-handed pitching this year.

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Reds-Yankees Pick

I like the road underdog Reds here. While the Yankees are one of if not the best team in all of baseball, they haven't been playing like it lately and one could make the argument that they appear to be coasting into the All-Star break.

Beyond that, Cortes seems to be trending in the wrong direction and the Reds starter Castillo has the groundball and strikeout stuff to keep the Yankees lineup in check.

New York's closer Clay Holmes has pitched each of the past two days so he's potentially unavailable if a save situation were to arise for the Yankees in this one.

Add it all up and I'm on the Cincinnati moneyline here at +165 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Reds ML +165