Rockies vs. Phillies Odds, Picks: Bet Philadelphia to Win Big on Monday
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson
- The Rockies travel to Philadelphia for the fourth meeting between these two teams this season.
- The Rockies won two of the first three, but will that trend continue?
- Tony Sartori shares his best bet for this game below.
Rockies vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We have the first matchup of a four-game set as the National League West’s third-place Colorado Rockies travel to Philadelphia to take on the NL East’s fourth-place Phillies. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the Rockies have won two of the first three.
Will Colorado take care of business once again, or can the Phillies get their revenge at home?
Colorado Rockies: Can Freeland Get Back on Track?
Left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland is projected to take the mound for Colorado and did not fare well in his last appearance against Philadelphia. Despite his offense bailing him out, Freeland gave up two runs on six hits over five innings in his start against the Phillies last week.
Freeland has struggled mightily through three starts this year as he is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP. While his metrics illuminate that those numbers will improve, they also suggest that positive regression will not be drastic anytime soon. Freeland possesses a .371 xwOBA, .298 xBA and .472 xSLG.
The Phillies also teed off on Freeland last season in his one start against them, scoring four runs on five hits through six innings. If Freeland gets chased early, Colorado’s bullpen may struggle as well.
This season, Colorado’s relief pitching ranks 26th in the league in ERA, 29th in BA, 25th in wOBA, and 24th in SLG. This pitching staff is also unlikely to get much help from the offense as the Rockies are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Gibson.
Through 85 career plate appearances against Gibson, the current Rockies roster possesses a mere .176 BA, .230 SLG and .222 wOBA. Against right-handed pitchers on the road, Colorado ranks dead-last in the league in BA, 28th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 25th in OPS.
Philadelphia Phillies: Can Gibson Continue Strong Start?
Gibson is off to a good start this season. Through his first three starts, he’s 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.019 WHIP through 17 2/3 innings pitched.
Gibson’s metrics are also been outstanding — he possesses a .281 xwOBA, .221 xBA, and .340 xSLG. Gibson has looked good to start the year and it’s easy to envision him continuing to throw well against the Rockies at home.
In his one home start, Gibson threw seven shutout innings and only allowed two hits. He usually excels when playing in front of a home crowd as he went 7-3 last year at home with a 2.81 ERA and 1.032 WHIP.
Philadelphia’s offense should also be able to provide Gibson some help as it has performed well against Freeland in the past. Through 77 career plate appearances against Freeland, the current Phillies roster boasts a .294 xBA, .453 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA.
The Phillies have excelled against left-handers and currently rank first in the league in BA, first in wOBA, second in SLG and first in OPS.
This game presents a great opportunity for the Phillies to get revenge against Colorado for the last time these two teams squared off. Playing on their home diamond, the Phillies should be able to get a win with the superior starting pitcher and the better hitting matchups.
I think the run line is too short in this contest because Philadelphia has had a slow start to the season. However, five of its six wins have come by at least two-runs.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Play up to (-110)
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