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Rockies vs. Phillies Odds, Pick, Prediction: Philadelphia Lineup Is Red Hot (April 28)

Rockies vs. Phillies Odds, Pick, Prediction: Philadelphia Lineup Is Red Hot (April 28) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper

  • The Phillies are looking to complete a four-game sweep of the Rockies.
  • Philadelphia has played well of late, but will it continue Thursday?
  • Jules Posner gives his best bet below.

Rockies vs. Phillies Odds

Rockies Odds +165
Phillies Odds -200
Over/Under 7.5 (+100 / -120)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Colorado Rockies, who have been one of the surprises of the first month of the season, look to avoid the four game sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday afternoon.

This is already the Rockies’ first series loss of the season, but perhaps these are two teams heading in different directions.

Austin Gomber looks to be the stopper for the Rockies and he’ll square off against a reeling Zack Wheeler.

The Phillies will look to inch a game closer to .500 with a victory Thursday before heading to New York to take on the first place Mets.

Colorado Rockies: Offense Thriving on Road

The Colorado Rockies presently hold a 10-7 record and a lot of that has to do with their above average road offense.

It is generally assumed that the Rockies’ offense will benefit from the “Coors Field Effect”, but their offense has traveled to the tune of a team wRC+ of 104 on the road this season.

Although Colorado’s scoring opportunities have improved, its offense has struggled to convert scoring opportunities into runs. Heading into Wednesday night’s game, the Rockies were 24th in runs scored on the road and they only plated three runs Wednesday night.

Austin Gomber has the start for the Rockies on getaway day and so far he’s posted an impressive 2.53 ERA and 1.39 FIP on the road.

Unfortunately, the Rockies’ bullpen has the highest staff ERA, which means a lead against one of the better home offenses may not be safe.

 


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Philadelphia Phillies: Matchup Looks Good for Offense

Speaking of shaky bullpens, the Phillies are right behind the Rockies with the second worst bullpen ERA in the bigs. So really, we’re looking at two evenly matched teams.

However, Zack Wheeler is on the hill for the Phillies. He would love to turn around his rocky start to 2022 against the Rockies in the city where the movie Rocky was filmed. … This is the type of hard-hitting analysis people turn to The Action Network for.

So you see? It doesn’t take a fancy regression or simulation to know that Wheeler is due to bounce back Wednesday afternoon.

The Phillies offense is also the fourth best in the league in wRC+ against lefties so far this season and historically Austin Gomber is almost two full runs worse on the road. This could be a good offensive day for a patient and powerful team against a pitcher who is prone to giving away free bases via the walk.

Rockies-Phillies Pick

While the Rockies were a nice story, April is winding down and Colorado is going to return to earth.

Conversely, the Phillies may be kicking into gear after a slow start. Their offense seems to have been energized by the Rockies pitching staff and they hope to be firing on all cylinders when they make the trip to New York to take on the Mets.

First things first, the moneyline for the Phillies opened at -195. The Phillies should keep on rolling tomorrow and the runline is +110. This is a much better value and a likely outcome. Take the RL as long as it’s in + territory.

Pick: Phillies RL

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