Rockies vs. Tigers Odds, Pick & Preview: Another Colorado Total That’s Too High (April 24)
Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Alexander.
- The Tigers are short underdogs at home on Sunday against the Rockies.
- With strong winds blowing in during this ballgame, is there value on the total?
- Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Rockies vs. Tigers Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The third and final game of this series is upon us as the Detroit Tigers host the Colorado Rockies in this weekend’s interleague matchup.
Will we see a high-scoring affair in this series finale, or can the pitching keep this game under the total?
Can Colorado Back Red-Hot Kuhl?
Right-handed pitcher Chad Kuhl is projected to take the mound for Colorado and has gotten off to a great start this season. Through his first two starts, Kuhl boasts a 0.87 ERA and 0.871 WHIP through 10 1/3 innings pitched.
I don’t expect to see much regression in this matchup as Kuhl possesses a spectacular .250 xwOBA, .175 xBA and .260 xSLG. The under has hit in both of Kuhl’s starts this season.
Colorado’s bullpen should not be too worrisome once we get to the later innings, as its relief pitching entered Saturday ranked 14th in MLB in ERA. However, Colorado’s lineup may not provide too much run support against left-hander Tyler Alexander.
Though an extremely small sample size, this current Rockies lineup is just 1-for-10 combined against Alexander. Outside of C.J. Cron, Colorado is due for some serious regression in the hitting department given its lack of hard-hit-balls this year. Seven of the Rockies’ projected nine starting hitters have a hard-hit percentage below 40%.
Alexander Finally Faces Non-Elite Opposition
The Detroit Tigers enter this contest following a flurry of low-scoring games. Prior to Saturday’s doubleheader, the Tigers saw nine or fewer total runs scored in six straight games and in 10 of their previous 12. The under has hit in both of Alexander’s starts this season.
While Alexander’s numbers are not outstanding thus far, he has faced the Yankees and Red Sox, both of whom are two offenses much stronger than Colorado’s.
Even if Alexander has another poor outing, I expect Detroit’s bullpen to keep the damage to a minimum if he is chased early. The Tigers bullpen entered Saturday ranked eighth in the league in ERA, 12th in SLG and 10th in wOBA.
Through 44 career plate appearances against Kuhl, this current Tigers roster possesses a mere .179 BA, .333 SLG and .254 wOBA. Against right-handers this season, Detroit entered Saturday ranked 27th in the league in BA, 25th in wOBA, 26th in SLG and 26th in OPS.
I think this total is too high, likely because of Colorado’s recent high-scoring games. However, the Rockies just had seven straight home games at a stadium known for its inflated run total due to the altitude.
The weather should help us out for this total to go under as well with the forecast calling for 17-20 mph winds blowing in from right field.
Pick: Under 9 (-115, play to -125)
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