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Royals vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Fade Zack Greinke & Kansas City (May 2)

Royals vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Fade Zack Greinke & Kansas City (May 2) article feature image
Credit:

Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Greinke.

  • The Cardinals are home favorites on Monday afternoon against the Royals.
  • Zack Greinke has had a strong start to the season, but is he due for some regression in this spot?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Royals vs. Cardinals Odds

Royals Odds +125
Cardinals Odds -155
Over/Under 7 (-120 / +100)
Time 4:15 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The AL Central’s fourth-place Kansas City Royals kick off a three-game series against the NL Central’s second-place St. Louis Cardinals on Monday. This is the second meeting between these two teams this season as the Cardinals won the first matchup 6-5.

Will the Cardinals take care of business once again, or can the Royals pull off the upset on the road?

Can Greinke Carry the Royals to a Win?

The Kansas City Royals enter this contest in poor form as they have lost seven of their last nine games prior to Sunday. Right-hander Zack Greinke is projected to take the mound for Kansas City in this game and has had a solid start to the season.

Through four starts, Greinke is 0-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. However, this is a good spot to sell high on Greinke as his underlying metrics are troubling.

Currently, the former Cy Young award winner possesses a .403 xwOBA, .338 xBA, and .544 xSLG. If the Cardinals chase Greinke early, the Royals’ bullpen should not be much better.

This season, Kansas City’s relief pitching ranks just 29th in the league in ERA, 28th in BA, 28th in wOBA, and 26th in SLG. Kansas City’s pitching staff probably will not get much run support either as the Royals are slated to go against left-hander Steven Matz.

Through 66 career plate appearances against Matz, the Royals possess a mere .154 xBA, .235 xSLG, and .209 xwOBA. Against left-handed pitchers this season, Kansas City ranks just 23rd in the league in BA, 27th in wOBA, 27th in SLG, and 28th in OPS.


Can Matz Find Some Momentum?

The St. Louis Cardinals also enter this series in poor form as they have lost five of their last seven games prior to Sunday. However, this is a good spot to buy low on St. Louis with left-hander Matz projected to take the mound.

While Matz’s metrics are also poor, they are better than Greinke’s numbers. Currently, Matz possesses a .352 xwOBA, .329 xBA, and .444 xSLG.

St. Louis also boasts the better bullpen in this matchup as the Cardinals’ relief pitching currently ranks sixth in the league in ERA, 12th in wOBA, and 11th in SLG. This pitching staff should also get plenty of run support against Greinke.

Through 193 career plate appearances against Greinke, this current Cardinals lineup boasts a .250 xBA, .403 xSLG, and .297 xwOBA. Historically, the Cardinals have dominated this matchup as St. Louis has won seven of the last nine meetings against the Royals.

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Royals-Cardinals Pick

I think we are getting great value in the Cardinals in this matchup because of the surface-level appearance between the starting pitchers. Simply glancing at ERA, one would think that Greinke is much better than Matz so far this season.

However, the metrics prove that is not the case, and regression is looming for the Royals starter. A deeper dive shows that the Cardinals have every edge in this matchup, whether it be starting pitching, bullpen, lineup, or home field.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130) | Play down to (+110)

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