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MLB Odds & Picks for Royals vs. Tigers: Trend to Back for AL Central Showdown

MLB Odds & Picks for Royals vs. Tigers: Trend to Back for AL Central Showdown article feature image
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Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal #29.

  • The Tigers host the Royals in the finale of their weekend series.
  • Brady Singer gets the ball for the Royals and Tarik Skubal gets the start for Detroit in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and provides a best bet below.

Royals vs. Tigers Odds

Royals Odds +116
Tigers Odds -136
Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-120)
Time 12:05 p.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this AL Central intradivisional series as the Detroit Tigers host the Kansas City Royals. This is the sixth meeting between these two teams this season and there have been seven or fewer total runs in each of the first five contests.

Will we see yet another low-scoring affair between these two clubs, or will the scoring pick up?

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Kansas City Royals: Singer Matches Up Well Against Detroit

The Kansas City Royals enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring games. There have been seven or fewer runs scored in 10 of the Royals’ past 16 games. I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Brady Singer is slated to take the mound for the Royals.

Through 11 appearances this season, Singer is 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. While those numbers are below-average, Singer’s metrics suggest he could see some positive regression soon as he possesses a .323 xwOBA and .252 xBA.

Additionally, Singer has now allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past two starts against the Tigers. However, Singer may not get much run support as the Royals are slated to go against left-hander Tarik Skubal.

When facing left-handers on the road, the Royals rank just 24th in the league in BA, 26th in SLG, 22nd in OPS and 23rd in wOBA since June 1st. Through 67 career plate appearances against Skubal, this current Royals roster possesses a mere .136 BA, .197 SLG, and .143 wOBA.

Detroit Tigers: Will Skubal Shut Down Royals Again?

Like Kansas City, the Detroit Tigers have also seen many low-scoring games recently. Over their past 16 games, there have been seven or fewer runs scored nine times.

As I mentioned above, left-hander Tarik Skubal is slated to take the mound for the Tigers. Through 15 starts this season, Skubal is 5-6 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

Skubal’s metrics are even stronger as he boasts a .301 xwOBA, .248 xBA and a .403 xSLG. In each of his past two starts against the Royals, Skubal has held Kansas City scoreless through 9 2/3 innings.

There were seven or fewer total runs scored in each of those games. However, Skubal may not get much run support as the Tigers are slated to go against right-hander Brady Singer.

Since June 1st, the Tigers rank just 19th in the league in BA, 27th in SLG, 26th in OPS and 27th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers at home. Through 88 career plate appearances against Singer, this current Tigers roster possesses a mere .238 BA, .393 SLG, and .278 wOBA.

Royals-Tigers Pick

We have two fade-worthy lineups going against two solid starting pitchers in what I expect to be a low-scoring game. With each of the past five meetings this season between these two teams going under this total, we have to ride the trend until it fails.

We got the trends on our side, the poor lineups and the starting pitching. The one area where we could get burned is with two below-average bullpens.

That being said, if each of these pitchers can get to at least the sixth or seventh inning, then the bullpens could be nullified. You could also take the F5 under to avoid the bullpens. However, every time I do that, it seems to go over in the F5 and under for full game so I am sticking with the basics here.

Pick: Royals/Tigers u7.5 (-120) | Play down to 7 if it is at plus-money.

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