Royals vs. Twins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why to Bet Saturday’s Over (May 28)

Royals vs. Twins Odds

Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals in the third game of a four-game divisional set. Both Archer and Brady Singer, who will get the start for Kansas City, have performed relatively well this season, but they have also been getting some luck. Singer owns a 1.83 ERA, but his xERA is 3.36. This is still strong, but expect some regression in the near future. Archer is similar. He has a solid 3.89 ERA, but his xERA is 4.59, suggesting he is getting lucky as well. Pair this with two lineups that have fared well against right-handed pitching in May and runs should be scored consistently throughout the matchup.

Betting the over in this game is the correct play.

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Kansas City Royals: Singer May be Due for Rough Start

Singer has gone two straight outings without allowing a run and went seven innings in both of those games. That is impressive, but it's also important to consider that he faced this Twins lineup just last week. The other team he faced was a somewhat depleted and struggling White Sox lineup. Singer will be facing a lineup that has three batters with a .400+ xwOBA off of righty fastballs and sinkers (Singer’s predominant pitch) in May. There are four others in the Chicago lineup who are above .330. This means seven of the Twins nine hitters could cause trouble for Singer.

The Kansas City bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this month. They own a 5.13 ERA and 4.48 xFIP, paired with a paltry 11% walk rate. When a group of relievers own a 1.48 WHIP, late innings are anything but secured. Expect the Twins to pile on runs even after Singer exits the game. Since he will be unlikely to go seven strong again, Minnesota will have some leeway to provide insurance late in the game.

Minnesota Twins: Can Archer Limit Hard Contact?

Archer sometimes has issues with allowing hard contact. Last season, his Average Exit Velocity allowed was 92.1 mph. This year, he has lowered it to 88.2 mph, which is far better, but his Hard Hit Percentage still ranks amongst the bottom half of all pitchers. His walk rate is also abysmal at 11.9%. This Kansas City lineup does like to chase, but if he is issuing the occasional free pass to a patient hitter like Carlos Santana, it could spell trouble.

Now, the Royals are missing some key names for this matchup. Salvador Pérez, Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Cam Gallagher and Michael Taylor are all on the 10-Day Injured List. However, this should not matter much given the matchup against Archer. This month, the Royals have six batters averaging at least a 90-mph exit velocity off of right handers. In addition, seven batters are over the .330 xwOBA mark. This should be more than enough to prove that Archer has been lucky in the early going.

Minnesota’s bullpen has been relatively strong this month. They have a 3.66 xFIP, but they also have some weak spots in middle relief. If Archer is going to get shelled, some of these pitchers may see action. At that point, the Royals should be able to produce a couple of runs off of the likes of Caleb Thielbar, for example, who owns a 4.38 xFIP versus a 1.69 ERA.

Royals-Twins Pick

Both of these teams have hit right-handers well and this is a perfect position to bet the over with two starters who have been lucky in April and May. Archer is not the pitcher he once was and Singer will come back to earth a little bit. The Kansas City bullpen has its weak spots and if the Royals get Archer out of the game, the Twins will have to utilize middle relievers they would rather not rely on. Take the over at 8.5 (+100) and play it to 9 (-110).

Pick: Over 8.5 +100 | Play to 9 (-110)