The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on August 4, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The San Diego Padres are coming off a series victory over the St. Louis Cardinals as they continue to pursue a postseason berth after a busy trade deadline. Meanwhile, on the other end, their divisional rival, the Arizona Diamondbacks, were sellers at the deadline, but still managed to complete a series win this past weekend.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Padres vs Diamondbacks pick: Diamondbacks F5 Over 2.5
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the Diamondbacks first five innings over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP JP Sears (SDP) | Stat | RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 10-7 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.95/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 5.11/6.29 |
| 4.97/4.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.03 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 14.4% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 27.9% | GB% | 40.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 105 | Location+ | 103 |
John Feltman’s Padres vs Diamondbacks Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Sears Debuts Against D-backs
JP Sears gets the ball tonight in his Padres debut, and many seem to think this is an easy matchup for him. I’m here to tell you that couldn’t be further from the truth, as the Snakes' lineup is still filled with offensive talent despite trading away Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Sears’ numbers aren’t the best, entering tonight with a 4.95 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The good news for Sears is that he’ll be pitching for a much better team moving forward, and the dimensions of Petco Park are more pitcher-friendly than Sacramento.
What concerns me for tonight is Sears’ inability to consistently keep the ball on the ground (28% GB Rate) and his lack of swing-and-miss arsenal. The Snakes have also fared well against Sears in the past in a small sample size of at-bats, but they’ve also been a stronger offensive unit at home.
The Padres will take on Brandon Pfaadt tonight, who has struggled most of the season. He doesn’t walk batters, but allows a ton of hard contact, so the Padres should be able to score runs tonight.
They’ve also destroyed him in the past, going 35-113 with eight extra-base hits. The offense should do its part tonight, but I have too many questions about Sears’ performance to support the Padres.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Snakes Still Fighting
The Snakes still fight, despite waiving the white flag at the trade deadline, and they should be able to get off to a strong start in the series. I love the matchup for the offense tonight, and I think the addition of prospect Tyler Locklear will be more impactful moving forward than what others perceive.
This season, Locklear mashed in the minor leagues, hitting 19 HRs and swiping 18 bags. He was a prized prospect for the Mariners, but the Snakes were able to acquire him in the Eugenio Suarez trade.
I mentioned above that the Snakes' offense is still potent without their departures, especially at home. I like tonight’s matchup against JP Sears, and I think the market is still overreacting to their trade deadline moves.
The one area of concern for Arizona tonight is their starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt currently ranks below the 3rd percentile amongst all MLB pitchers in exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
He has a 5.11 ERA, but his xERA is 6.29. Metrics also suggest that opposing hitters should be batting .309 against him, which is astronomically high.
The offense must show up tonight because there are far too many red flags surrounding Pfaadt on the mound.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The market implies that the best play for tonight’s game is to back Arizona, which I will do in an alternative fashion. I love the matchup for the offense tonight, so I will back the F5 Team Total over.
The Padres made some improvements to the back end of their bullpen, so I want to focus on the portion of the game where Sears is on the mound. Arizona should be able to score early and often, and the line movement from the market makes me feel even more confident that they will.
Pfaadt is far too much of a wild-card to depend on a strong start, and the Padres have a significant bullpen edge over the Snakes. Expect the Snakes' offense to start this series hot offensively.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Over 2.5
Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
