The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on May 14, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers Pick: Under 8
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -105o / -115u | +116 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8 -105o / -115u | -136 |
- Padres vs Brewers moneyline: Padres +116, Brewers -136
- Padres vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-105 / -115)
- Padres vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+146), Padres +1.5 (-178)
Padres vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Griffin Canning (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Kyle Harrison (LHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 6.75 / 3.38 | ERA / xERA | 2.41 / 3.46 |
| 3.55 / 3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 3.27 / 3.32 |
| 17.1% | K-BB% | 20.0% |
| 54.2% | GB% | 36.3% |
| .391 | BABIP | .313 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 95 | Location+ | 112 |
Padres vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals based on perceived offensive capability, yet these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution, creating a profitable edge on the Under.
Padres vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Kyle Harrison is one of my favorite pitchers in the sport.
He always had the potential because of how he uses his fastball (low arm slot with a flat approach angle), but the Brewers have fully optimized his arsenal (more changeups). He’s running expected run indicators around three (3.46 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, 2.89 botERA) behind a 20% strikeout minus walk rate, a 105 Stuff+ rating, and an elite batted-ball profile.
Harrison is the real deal, and I’m always willing to bet Milwaukee Unders when he’s on the mound.
Griffin Canning’s first two outings this season were tough (6.75 ERA), but his expected run indicators look fine (3.38 xERA, 3.21 xFIP), and he’s posted a rock-solid 17.1% strikeout minus walk rate through these first nine innings (12 strikeouts, five walks). His changeup looks really good (20% swinging-strike rate, .233 xwOBA allowed).
Neither of these offenses has looked great this season, and they’ve both regressed over the past three weeks (San Diego 85 wRC+, 29th; Milwaukee 96 wRC+, 22nd). The Brewers always manufacture runs on the base paths, but I always loathe their contact profile (37% hard-hit rate, 6% barrel rate, 52% ground-ball rate).
These are also two elite bullpens. The Padres lead the league in reliever fWAR (2.6) behind Mason Miller, while the Brewers rank fourth (1.9). It’s one of the main reasons these are two winning teams, and one of the main reasons why we bet Unders between winning teams.
Pick: Under 8
