The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants on May 11, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Giants vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Giants vs Dodgers Prediction
Giants vs Dodgers Picks:
- Trevor McDonald Over 14.5 Outs
- Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 Walks
- Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H+R+RBIs
Giants vs Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | +150 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | -178 |
Giants vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Trevor McDonald (RHP, SFG) | Stat | Roki Sasaki (LHP, LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 1.29 / 2.82 | ERA / xERA | 5.97 / 5.75 |
| 3.12 / 1.86 | FIP / xFIP | 6.81 / 5.15 |
| 33.3% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 66.7% | GB% | 38.2% |
| .071 | BABIP | .305 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 116 | Location+ | 92 |
Giants vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
San Francisco Giants Trends, Key Players
The Giants will start Trevor McDonaldin this one, who is hoping to keep his bags unpacked for a bit longer this time.
He was called up to make a start last week, and he shoved against the Padres with seven innings of one-run ball and eight strikeouts. However, shortly after, he was swiftly sent back to AAA.
But before he could get the AAA jersey back on, the Giants needed him again when Logan Webb hit the IL. So he'll get another chance here, and it's about the toughest test you could ask for.
So let's get to know McDonald.
He's a right-handed heavy sinkerball pitcher. He threw that pitch 63% of the time in that MLB start last week, and it's 61% for the year in AAA. Stuff+ models don't love it (99 Stuff+), but it was mighty effective against the Padres.
He throws a slider for most of the remaining 30%. And that looks like a pretty nasty one, registering a 122 Stuff+ in that debut.
If anything works against this elite Dodgers lineup, it might be this sort of pitch mix. The Dodgers have just a .786 OPS against righty sinkers and sliders dating back to last year.
And their best player, Shohei Ohtani, is stuck on six homers on the year. He just hasn't been himself at the plate.
McDonald was pulled after 81 pitches in that first start, and he was sailing. So it could be a relatively quick hook on him for this; he's pretty likely to get himself into trouble.
That said, the Giants played a 12-inning affair yesterday after the Giants gave up 13 runs on Saturday, so there might be a desire to save the bullpen a bit and let McDonald push to 85 pitches regardless.
Los Angeles Dodgers Trends, Key Players
On the other side is Roki Sasaki, whose rotation spot was saved (for now) by Tyler Glasnow hitting the IL. Blake Snell has returned, but the Dodgers are going to roll with whoever their six best guys are all year long.
Sasaki has been better this year than last. His K% is up two points, and his BB% is down 2.5 points. That might sound good if you don't know how bad he was in that rookie year.
Sasaki currently sits with a 19% K%, an 11% BB%, and a 5.96 ERA, which is still pretty bad.
But he's trying different things, throwing the splitter more and more to get away from his atrocious fastball. That's good for limiting homers, but not good at all for efficiency or walks.
The splitter is ideally reserved for spots where the pitcher is ahead in the count, and Sasaki hasn't found himself in those spots very much since signing on with the Dodgers.
What's working in Sasaki's favor is the Giants' total disinterest in taking free passes. This team walks less than your 450-pound uncle, with a walk rate of 5.4%, which is the second-lowest in the league, behind only the Diamondbacks at 7.3%. That is a huge gap.
Every other team is between that 7.3% mark and 10.3%. So there's a three-point range for the whole league up to #29, and then two more points before you get to the Giants.
Giants vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
In certain ways, it seems like a pretty solid matchup for both arms.
McDonald's pitch mix has worked on the Dodgers (relatively, at least), and Sasaki's biggest problem (the walk) isn't something you typically need to worry about against the Dodgers.
But I'm in no mood to bet on a rookie with a pretty spotty minor league resume. The Sasaki walks thing is more interesting to me. He has 2, 1, and 2 walks in his last three starts with an improved 38% Ball%.
We're focusing solely on the pitchers here because they dictate so much of these games, and this game in particular. I like McDonald to log five innings, and I like Sasaki to stay under 2.5 walks.
If you want to go to a hitter, we've seen some positive signs from Rafael Devers in the recent week. He has a barrel rate above 12% in May, and this is a good spot against a righty that throws plenty of meatball fastballs.
If Devers can get ahead, he can sit on that heater and do some real damage, and he gets a positive park factor with this one being played in Los Angeles.
Picks:
- Trevor McDonald Over 14.5 Outs
- Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 Walks
- Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H+R+RBIs
