Saturday MLB Odds and Picks: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Sept. 5)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez
- The Colorado Rockies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, Sept. 5.
- Colorado's German Marquez will take on LA's Tony Gonsolin on the mound.
- Michael Arinze thinks both starters tonight are undervalued, providing value on a first-inning under play.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Betting Odds
|Rockies Odds||+175 [Bet Now]|
|Dodgers Odds||-215 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9 (-114/-107) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||9:10 p.m. ET|
With yesterday’s win, the Dodgers have now won 17 of their last 18 games against the Rockies at home. Colorado hung on as long as they could with the game tied into the bottom of the seventh when the Dodgers scored three runs to take a 5-2 lead.
In the eighth, the Rockies answered back with four runs of their own only to watch the Dodgers launch three home runs in the bottom half to put the game out of reach at 10-6.
Today, the Rockies will look to regroup with right-hander, German Marquez on the mound. Marquez has performed well at Dodgers stadium as evidenced by his 1.99 ERA in five starts there.
His success there along with his performance early in games this season could provide some value on a possible first-inning play.
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Rockies: Marquez Deserves Better
On the surface, German Marquez’s numbers aren’t anything to get overly excited about. He’s 2-5 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. But I’d be remiss to leave out that this is a pitcher who pitches half his games at his hitter-friendly home park, Coors Field. A closer look at his home/away splits helps to support this theory.
Of his eight starts this season, Marquez has made four of them at Coors Field with the other four on the road. At home, Marquez is 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA and .327 BAA while on the road he’s 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA and .207 BAA.
By pitching half his games at Coors Field, Marquez clearly pitches to some tough luck. His 3.74 FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA and despite batters hitting only .267 against him, when they make contact, that number jumps to .326. I’d feel pretty confident in concluding that’s the Coors Field effect at work.
Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin, a Great Unknown
Second-year pitcher Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers tonight. After four starts this season, Gonsolin has barged his way into the Dodgers rotation. Gonsolin has yet to factor in a decision this season as he’s 0-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Batters are hitting just .153 against him and .214 after making contact. He’s still yet to give up a hit when throwing his slider or curveball this season.
His second appearance of his career actually came against the Colorado Rockies as he pitched the last four innings of the game while surrendering one run en route to a 9-4 Dodgers win.
Colorado hitters have managed only two hits in at-bats against him. Despite making 11 appearances last year with six starts, Gonsolin is still relatively unknown to much of the league. That’s certainly a benefit we can look to exploit early in tonight’s ballgame.
It may be a bit unconventional, but it’s not impossible that we see a scoreless first inning tonight. Both pitchers have combined to only allow first inning runs on two occasions in 12 starts.
In both instances, the runs were allowed by Marquez, but he’s been perfect his last four starts. Pitchers love the mound at Dodgers Stadium and Marquez certainly has good numbers pitching there.
Colorado batters have only faced Gonsolin 11 times and that should work to his advantage as well. All bets are off when they have to face the order a second time around but we just need six outs in the first inning to cash our ticket.
DraftKings is offering odds at +108 for a scoreless first inning and I think that’s worth a half-unit play. Hopefully Marquez and Gonsolin can give us a clean first inning to start the game.
The Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 +108 (Play down to +100)