Saturday MLB Player Props & Picks: 2 Bets for Jurickson Profar and Bruce Zimmermann (May 14)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres.
We have a loaded Saturday MLB slate on our hands, and I’ve pinpointed two players who are in line for big performances.
First, we head to Atlanta, where a wily veteran faces a lineup that has gotten the best of him in the past. Then we round out the afternoon card with a starter who may be on the verge of a breakout season and draws a positive matchup against a free-swinging lineup.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jurickson Profar to Record a Hit (-175)
|San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves|
|First Pitch||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Padres +120||DraftKings|
Ol’ Uncle Charlie will be on the hill today for the Atlanta Braves. The 38-year-old Morton has bounced around and faced a great deal of hitters in the league. His longevity gives us a nice sample size for the team he’s up against today.
The Padres lineup has hit Morton well in their encounters, however I’m focusing on one man to add to his tremendous numbers against Morton.
Jurickson Profar has faced Morton 19 times and recorded five hits — one of which was a homerun. However, it’s not just the amount of hits he’s recorded, but moreover it’s the quality of them that is important. Through their encounters Profar has maintained an average exit velocity of 89 mph.
Morton has had trouble missing bats this year as he’ll enter this start in the bottom 20% of the league in nearly every expected stat.
On the other hand, Profar is a hard guy to strike out. He’s in the top 20% of all qualified hitters in strikeout, whiff, and chase rate.
Profar should continue to put the ball in play and — based on the history — good things will happen.
Pick: Yes -175 (Fanduel)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Bruce Zimmermann Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-150)
|Orioles at Tigers|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Orioles +100||DraftKings|
Bruce Zimmermann is off to a surprisingly great start to the season. He enters Saturday’s outing with a 2.67 ERA while recording 30 strikeouts in just over 30 innings of work.
His numbers are drastically better than his two previous seasons, and it is primarily due to the increased movement on his breaking pitches. His slider has three more inches of vertical drop than it did last year, and his curveball has four more inches of drop.
His slider has become a deadly weapon and boasts a 53.8% whiff rate this year. It just so happens that the Tigers have struggled mightily with sliders this season: 12 of 15 qualified hitters have a whiff rate over 30% on sliders this season.
Zimmermann has hovered around this total in each of his starts, but he hasn’t faced a free-swinging lineup like Detroit. The Tigers are 12th in MLB in strikeout rate (23%), but that rate increases to 24.1% against left-handed pitching.
He has the potential to rack up the punchouts today as his arsenal is made to miss the Tigers’ bats.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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