Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Willson Contreras & Corey Seager (July 30)
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- On a full Saturday of MLB action, Tony Sartori is offering up five PrizePicks props to create a parlay.
- He touches on these plays across two games on Saturday evening.
- The first game consists of three Cubs players vs. the Giants, and the second matchup includes the backing of two Rangers hitters vs. the Angels
Saturday’s MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, July 30
Drew Smyly Over 4 Strikeouts
We have the third matchup of this four-game series, as the NL West’s San Francisco Giants host the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs.
Left-hander Drew Smyly is taking the mound for Chicago in this game and could be a candidate worth backing in the strikeout department.
Through 12 starts this season, Smyly is 3-5 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. While those numbers are “take it or leave it,” Smyly has been throwing the ball better recently.
Over his last two starts, Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, while racking up four strikeouts in each outing. In fact, Smyly has reached at least four strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts (82%).
This trend could continue against the Giants, a team that ranks just 25th in the league in strikeout percentage when facing left-handed pitchers since June 1. In each of his two career starts against San Francisco, Smyly has racked up at least four strikeouts.
Willson Contreras Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We are also backing a few Cubs hitters in this contest, as they are slated to go against right-hander Jakob Junis. Through 11 pinching appearances this season, Junis is 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
While those surface-level numbers are very good, his metrics suggest that regression is looming. This season, Junis possesses a .315 xwOBA, .250 xBA and .426 xSLG.
That regression has started to slowly hit Junis recently. Over his last three starts, Junis is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
The first Chicago batter we are backing is Willson Contreras. Over his last seven games, Contreras has accumulated at least one run/RBI four times (57%).
While there is not much of a sample size going against Junis, Contreras is 1-for-2 with a single in his career against him. Contreras’ metrics are strong this season, as he boasts a .368 xwOBA, .256 xBA and .458 xSLG.
Although it is all but certain that Contreras will be traded in the next few days, I expect a big second half of the season from the catcher.
Seiya Suzuki Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
The other Cubs hitter we are backing in this game is Seiya Suzuki.
While Suzuki has never faced Junis before, he could have some success here, as he hits right-handers well.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Suzuki boasts a .275 BA, .343 OBP, .444 SLG and .787 OPS. Suzuki’s metrics are also right around those numbers, so I do not expect to see any regression.
This game is a good buy-low opportunity for Suzuki, who has gone over this total just once over his last six games.
Adolis Garcia Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We have the third matchup of this four-game AL West series, as the Los Angeles Angels host the Texas Rangers.
We are backing a few Rangers hitters, as they are slated to go against right-hander Chase Silseth.
Through six starts this season, Silseth is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His metrics are even worse, as he possesses a .378 xwOBA, .304 xBA and .502 xSLG.
The first Rangers hitter we are backing is Adolis Garcia, who has gone over this total in five of his last six games (83%). When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Garcia’s splits jump by about 23%, as he possesses a .265 BA, .306 OBP, .495 xSLG and .801 OPS.
Corey Seager Hitter Fantasy Score Over 8.5
The other Rangers hitter we are backing is Corey Seager. It is worth noting that Seager missed Friday’s game due to a leg contusion and is questionable for Saturday’s game, but if he does not start, then this play is simply pushed out of the PrizePicks stack.
Seager has been in great form recently, as he has gone over this total in 11 of his last 17 games (65%). I do not expect Seager to slow down anytime soon, as his metrics are outstanding this season.
Thus far, Seager boasts a .382 xwOBA, .288 xBA and .535 xSLG.
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