Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Marcus Semien & Freddie Freeman (August 13)
Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas Rangers shortstop Marcus Semien
Saturday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, August 13
Dane Dunning Over 5 Hits Allowed
We have the second matchup of this three-game AL West intradivisional series with the Texas Rangers hosting the Seattle Mariners. Through 21 starts this season, Dunning is 2-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Dunning has now allowed six or more hits in five of his past seven starts (71%). I expect this tough season to continue for Dunning as he is set to face a deep Mariners lineup.
Through 73 career plate appearances against Dunning, this current Mariners roster possesses a .237 xBA, .407 xSLG, and .325 xwOBA. Additionally, the Rangers went with a bullpen game last night and utilized six of their relievers.
This means that Dunning may have to go deeper into this contest, even if he is not throwing well. Seven of Seattle’s nine projected starters boast an xBA north of .250, making them one of the deepest lineups in baseball.
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Runs
While we are fading Texas’ starting pitcher, we will be backing a few of their hitters as they are slated to go against left-hander Marco Gonzales. Through 22 starts this season, Gonzales is 7-11 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
Gonzales has been in particularly poor form recently, going 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over his past five starts. Two of those five starts were against Texas, producing a 4.85 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
The first hitter we backing is Marcus Semien, who has scored at least one run in four of his past six games (67%). Through 46 career plate appearances against Gonzales, Semien boasts a .277 xBA, .439 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA.
When facing left-handers this season, Semien’s splits take about an 8 percent jump as he possesses a .248 BA, .326 OBP, .425 SLG, and .750 OPS.
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Hits + Walks
The other Rangers hitter we are backing in this contest is Corey Seager. Entering this contest in good form, Seager has gone over this total in six of his past nine games (67%).
It has been a good season for Seager as he possesses a .252 BA, .330 OBP, .470 SLG, and .800 OPS. However, we should expect an even better finish from Seager based on his metrics as he boasts a .378 xwOBA, .286 xBA, and .519 xSLG.
Through 18 career plate appearances against Gonzales, Seager possesses a .296 xBA, .487 xSLG, and .315 xwOBA.
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Runs
We have the second matchup of this three-game interleague series with the AL Central’s Kansas City Royals hosting the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers. We are backing a few Dodgers hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Brad Keller.
Through 21 starts this season, Keller is 6-12 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His metrics are just as poor, possessing a .317 xwOBA, .256 xBA, and .394 xSLG.
The first hitter we are backing is Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been sensational this season, boasting a .324 BA, .400 OBP, .523 SLG, and .923 OPS.
His metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue as Freeman boasts a .406 xwOBA, .317 xBA, and .548 xSLG. He should be able to keep this great season rolling against Keller. In his career against Keller, Freeman is 1-2 with a walk.
Will Smith Over 0.5 Runs
The other Dodgers hitter we are backing in this game is Will Smith. Scoring at least one run in five of his past eight games (63%), Smith should be able to keep it going against Keller.
Smith has torched left-handed pitching this season, boasting a .321 BA, .412 OBP, .512 SLG, and .924 OPS. Additionally, Smith possesses metrics almost as strong as Freeman’s.
This season, Smith possesses a .371 xwOBA, .273 xBA, and .499 xSLG. Hitting in front of Muncy, Turner, and Lux, someone should be able to push Smith across the plate at some point in this game.
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