The Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners on August 12, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
The Mariners open up this series as -160 favorites in Baltimore versus the Orioles.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Orioles Prediction
- Mariners vs Orioles picks: Orioles ML (play to +105)
My Mariners vs Orioles best bet is on Baltimore to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Orioles Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Mariners vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 4.04/3.47 | ERA /xERA | 4.35/3.91 |
| 3.40/3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 4.03/4.20 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 4.2 | K-BB% | 3.1 |
| 45.3 | GB% | 38.2 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 114 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul's Mariners vs Orioles Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
I’ve long believed in George Kirby’s upside as an ace-caliber arm. The Mariners have multiple aces, but Kirby hasn't made the ascention into ace territory. His teammates, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo, have, but Kirby still has room to grow.
That's not to say Kirby isn't good. He's very good, boasting a 4.04 ERA, a 3.47 xERA, and a 3.40 FIP. Kirby is walking more batters than last year. He posted an almost laughably good 1.08 BB/9 compared to 2.31 this year. He still ranks in the 80th percentile in walk rate, even with the increase in walks.
On the flip side, Kirby is generating chases at a 31.9% clip (87th percentile) and is punching out a career-best 9.58 per nine.
Now we can discuss the main reason I'm backing the Orioles here. The Mariners' offense is now swing-and-miss heavy and home run reliant. That can make backing the Mariners a very matchup-dependent task, which might sound crazy given they won 10 straight entering this series.
Since the All-Star break (23 games), Seattle ranks 20th in MLB with a 96 wRC+. The Mariners also place fifth with 35 homers and third worst in strikeout rate at 25.5%.
I'm just not buying stock in Seattle's offense if two of its bigger cogs can't get rolling. Those are possible MVP: Cal Raleigh and their trade deadline acquisition, Eugenio Suarez. That pair outlines Seattle's three true outcomes approach quite well.
Suarez is punching out 36% of the time in 10 games with the Mariners with a .105 average and -1 wRC+. Meanwhile, Raleigh has seven homers in 22 games, but is hitting .200 with a 35% K rate. So, if a strikeout-heavy pitcher faces Seattle or one who keeps the ball in the yard, I'd be wary of backing them.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Kremer is pretty underrated and due for some positive regression. Kremer has a 4.35 ERA, a 3.91 xERA, and 4.03 FIP, and has some extra room for strikeouts with his 69th percentile chase rate. He only punches out 7.48 batters per nine, but makes up for the lack of strikeouts with a strong 2.38 BB/9 and 1.22 HR/9.
Ranking in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 76th in average exit velo, Kremer is elite at generating soft contact. That's big since he's a primary fly-ball pitcher, and many of them result in weaker flyouts.
The Orioles might be 14 games under .500, but their offense resembles a team with a winning record. Since the All-Star break, they have a 104 wRC+, good for 13th in baseball.
They'll need to do their damage against Kirby by stringing together hits. That's the best path to scoring runs for the Orioles, as Kirby doesn't allow many homers and the Orioles have the second-worst walk rate in MLB over their past 23 games.
As of late, the quartet of Gunner Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Tyler O'Neill, and Adley Rutschman has lifted Baltimore's offense. Each of them has a wRC+ above 120 since the All-Star break, and each has a strikeout rate below 17.5%. It's the polar opposite of the Mariners. Seattle's best players swing and miss a ton, while the Orioles are tougher to put away.
The only thing making me worry a bit about Baltimore is its bullpen. That's the problem with backing teams who sold at the deadline. Plus, closer Felix Bautista being on the IL only exacerbates the concern. As long as Kremer provides six strong innings, I feel good enough about Yennier Cano, who's been super unlucky, and Keegan Akin in the 8th and 9th innings. The bridge in the 7th inning is more dicey, but I believe in Kremer and the offense enough to quell my concerns about the pen.
Mariners vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the price with the Orioles here. The pitching matchup is closer than you'd think based on name value, and the Mariners' offense is very, very concerning.
Seattle is very hot, collecting wins in nine of its last ten games. However, the Orioles can be pretty feisty. They stole a game from both the Cubs and Phillies in recent series losses. I expect the same here. Baltimore won't get swept, and I think the win comes right away.
Pick: Orioles ML (play to +105)
Moneyline
I like the Orioles here
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play
