The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 16, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 3:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ABC.
The Cubs are favored by -150 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
- Cardinals vs Cubs Pick: Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Play to -150)
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet is on Hunter Dobbins strikeouts prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -104o / -118u | +140 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 9 -104o / -118u | -150 |
- Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline: Cardinals +140, Cubs -150
- Cardinals vs Cubs over/under: 9 (-104o / -118u)
- Cardinals vs Cubs spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-160), Cubs -1.5 (+132)
Cardinals vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Hunter Dobbins (RHP, STL) | Stat | Edward Cabrera (RHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.40/3.80 | ERA / xERA | 5.10/4.86 |
| 4.22/4.03 | FIP / xFIP | 5.05/4.06 |
| 13.1% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 42.9% |
| .290 | BABIP | .290 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Cardinals vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Cardinals vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
When I looked at this Cardinals/Cubs Sunday series finale, one thing stood out from the jump — the 3.5-strikeout prop for Cardinals hurler Hunter Dobbins.
Dobbins has been a solid find for St. Louis, coming over from the Red Sox in the Willson Contreras trade. He owns a 3.40 ERA, a 3.81 xERA, and a 4.21 FIP over nine outings spanning 45 innings.
Dobbins is pretty even in how he records his outs. He punches out 22% of hitters, gets grounders 44% of the time, and a flyball out 36% of the time. Dobbins' ability to record outs in myriad ways helps him get deeper in games but can pull off his strikeout prowess when needed.
For this pick, I want to target Dobbins' strikeout ability. His strikeout prop sits at 3.5 at -111. The under is a bit more juiced, so I love this play on Dobbins to get four punchouts even more.
He recorded 4+ strikeouts in all nine of his outings this year, including in a 3 2/3 inning relief outing against this same Cubs team!
So, why is the prop so low? It's not like the Cubs are some elite bat-to-ball team. They rank 14th in MLB with a 21.8% strikeout rate. I don't view that number as good enough to justify strong odds on Dobbins to secure four punchouts.
Let's look at this Cubs roster. Three pivotal hitters (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto) strike out 29% of the time. Four other likely starters in this game also strike out at a 20 to 23% rate (Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch).
Even if we expect Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner to put the ball in play, that's just two of the nine hitters who aren't real strikeout candidates.
Looking at the first two games of this series, the Cubs punched out six times against both Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy. Liberatore is about the same as Dobbins in strikeout rate, and McGreevy has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league among starters.
If Dobbins gets at least 15 outs, which he did in each of his last five outings, I like him to get at least four strikeouts in those 15, but I could see him record 18 outs.
Pick: Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Play to -150)
