Patrick Gorski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jose Quintana
Betting odds: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Over/Under: 8
- First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Jose Quintana (10-9, 4.46 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.66 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 81-52-3, +23.45 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Red Sox Under 9, Glasnow vs. Price (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
After cashing the under in Jameson Taillon’s last outing (pushing my record in his starts to 8-3), I’m back for another one of his starts on Sunday.
Taillon’s last outing in Minnesota continued his terrific streak of allowing three runs or fewer in 14 consecutive starts. This isn’t a fluke, either, as Taillon is quickly turning into a top-flight starter.
Another reason to back the former No. 2 overall pick is that he is significantly better during day games (9-4, 3.03 ERA, 8.7 K/9) compared to night games (13-16, 4.24 ERA, 7.6 K/9) in his career.
Conversely, the other starter going in this series finale, Jose Quintana, tends to pitch better at night, but that’s OK because he’s in a very encouraging spot this afternoon.
Wait, but he’s allowed five runs in each of his past two starts, so how is this an encouraging spot?
Just listen to this track record Quintana has in bounce-back scenarios in his seven-year career: There have been nine instances in which the veteran left-hander allowed at least four earned runs in back-to-back outings. In all but one of the ensuing follow-up starts, he went go on to limit the opposing lineup to two runs or fewer. In seven of them, he notched at least seven innings.
Collectively, Quintana registered a splendid 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in those nine starts. Today’s assignment fits this criteria, so I am confident in my wager.
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Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.