The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rays vs Red Sox picks: Rays ML (-102) | Play to -110
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet is Rays ML (-102). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -176 | 9.5 -122o / -100u | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +146 | 9.5 -122o / -100u | -116 |
Rays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TB) | Stat | RHP Walker Buehler (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.68/4.30 | ERA /xERA | 5.18/4.78 |
| 5.04/4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 5.29/4.13 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 12.8% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 41.9% | GB% | 42.3% |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 98 |
Kenny Ducey’s Rays vs Red Sox Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays will once again hand the ball to Zack Littell, who's on a bit of a heater at the moment. The right-hander owns a 2.70 ERA in his last seven starts, dating back to the start of May, and he's coming off one of his best outings of the year against the Marlins, where he spun six innings of one-run ball with just six hits against him.
The issue for Littell, however, is that this is likely unsustainable. Not only does he own a 4.68 FIP in those seven starts, but we've seen this movie before. Littell got hot in 2024 only to stumble to the finish line, and his inability to induce friendly contact for field outs often holds him back.
The righty remains one of the stingiest in the league when it comes to limiting walks, issuing a free pass to just 3.4% of the batters he's faced, and that's been a consistent theme throughout his career. Another theme in the last few years has been a poor Expected Slugging, and his .491 xSLG this season is a massive jump of almost 30 points from his already-unsightly .439 xSLG in 2024.
Littell gives up a lot of barrels and a lot of homers, but he's already allowed 17 this season, which is on pace to shatter the career high of 22 he set last year. He's allowed more fly balls this season, which could be the culprit, but he's also been bad overall. Hitters are .254 against him this season, and with a .268 Expected Batting Average, things may get even worse.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox will counter with a similarly troubled right-hander in Walker Buehler. He's off to a tough start in his new home with a 5.18 ERA through 10 outings, and given the way he looked in Los Angeles last year after returning from a long injury rehab, it should come as no surprise.
Pitching coach Andrew Bailey is known for his magic touch, but it would seem Buehler — at least for now — is too much for even Bailey to fix. He's actually taken a slight step back with a .276 xBA and a .460 xSLG, and while he's found some more strikeouts and fewer walks, he's still not doing nearly enough to mask the issues he's had on contact.
Buehler's four-seamer and cut fastball are getting rocked, and while he found a way to pitch to an acceptable number of ground balls a year ago to somewhat mitigate the risk of disastrous contact, he's posted a 25.5% fly-ball rate this year which is roughly a point higher than the league average and is his highest since 2020. That's been a lot of the reason why his xSLG has spiked, and he's pacing for a career-high in homers allowed with 10 against him already.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Boston may be in a tough spot offensively here against Littell, despite the overall lack of trust I have in the righty. While the Red Sox sit third in OPS to ground-ball pitchers, they're just 15th against fly-ballers, and as a team, they've thrived in being patient at the dish of late with a 9.9% walk rate in the last two weeks. They've also struck out a bunch, too, so against a contact-oriented arm, there's certainly some hope here that their slightly above-average power numbers could shine.
The Rays, however, own the fourth-highest home run-to-fly ball ratio in the game in the last 14 days and have outpaced the Red Sox in terms of slugging the ball with a .190 Isolated Power in the last two weeks. This team is ranked just one spot higher than Boston in wRC+ over that span — sitting sixth in the bigs — but it's hit for far more power and has struck out in fewer plate appearances, which should put Tampa Bay in the driver's seat while both these starters are working.
With both bullpens performing well, however, and the visitors looking like the superior offense, I have no issues taking the full game moneyline here and betting on the Rays to out-homer their opponents.
Pick: Rays ML (-102)
Moneyline
As mentioned above, I like the Tampa Bay moneyline in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I will not be betting on either team to cover the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals.
Rays vs Red Sox Betting Trends
Rays vs Red Sox Weather
