The Chicago Cubs host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 12, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rays vs Cubs Prediction
- Rays vs Cubs pick: Rays ML
My Rays vs Cubs best bet is on the Rays to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Cubs Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +145 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -175 |
Rays vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (TBR) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 4.94/3.77 | ERA /xERA | 2.92/3.44 |
| 4.47/3.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44/4.08 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 47.6% | GB% | 38.7% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 108 |
Sean Paul’s Rays vs Cubs Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Boyd's Regression Raises Concerns
Regression has slowly but surely come knocking on Matthew Boyd's door. The 2025 All-Star selection didn't look like an All-Star over his last five outings — posting a 5.70 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 4.88 FIP.
So, Boyd is a bit unlucky right now. However, it makes up for Boyd having a 2.92 ERA for the year with a 3.44 xERA and FIP. Before the rocky stretch, Boyd looked due for regression. He had an ERA in the 2.40 range with a FIP and xERA sitting in the 3s.
Now that the regression is here, can Boyd get back on track versus a scalding hot offense? I'm skeptical due to him facing a very, very good offensive squad.
Don't get it twisted, though. Boyd is a very good arm who should round into form soon enough. He's allowing 1.60 runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homers per nine over his last five outings, which is up from his season-long 0.87 HR/9.
The Cubs' offense started flowing again once Kyle Tucker began to hit. The impending free agent, Tucker, posted a 254 wRC+ from August 22nd to September 11th, before suffering a groin injury. Including Tucker's 11 games, the Cubs have a 106 wRC+ — good for 13th. Now, if you flip to the eight games sans Tucker, and Chicago is 20th with an 87 wRC+.
I still believe in Chicago's offense, but it'll need more from Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong to make up for Tucker's injury. Tucker won't have a long absence, but he's out for this game, which affects the line.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Offense Carries the Load
I don't think any pitcher has been affected more by the switch from Tropicana Field to George M. Steinbrenner Field than Shane Baz. He has a 6.28 ERA in home games with a jarring 18 homers allowed, compared to a 3.59 road ERA with just eight homers. There's not a sample size gap either — Baz is at 77 2/3 innings at home and 77 1/3 on the road.
The numbers indicate that Baz is very unlucky. Entering with a sky-high 4.94 ERA is not ideal, but his xERA is a 3.77 with a 4.47 FIP. If Baz can keep the ball in the park, which he's done in road games, he can pitch a lot closer to his 3.77 xERA.
Baz records most of his outs via the strikeout or groundout — posting a 47.6% groundball rate with a 24.8% strikeout rate.
Offensively, Tampa Bay is shining of late, ranking eighth in MLB with a 116 wRC+. The Rays' plate approach is a bit of a concern. They have a poor 6.9% walk rate over their last 18 games and strike out 22.5% of the time.
Where the Rays offense makes up for the lousy approach is with their .270 batting average (6th in MLB) and 27 home runs (7th in MLB) over that 18 game span.
It doesn't hurt that Junior Caminero has seven homers with a 179 wRC+ and Yandy Diaz has a 178 wRC+. And both crush left-handed pitching, which is good since Brandon Lowe likely won't play since he's hitting well below .200 versus southpaws.
Rays vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll take the Rays at +145 here. I'm not sure how I feel about the Cubs without Tucker. The offense is vastly worse without him and Baz should pitch well in a pitcher-friendly environment.
Not to mention, the Cubs dropped a home series versus the Nationals last week and lost a game to the Braves this week. Odds are, they aren't sweeping the Rays, and this is the best chance the Rays have at snagging a victory. Give me the dogs here.
Pick: Rays ML (+145, BetMGM; play to +115)
Rays vs Cubs Betting Trends
