The New York Yankees (18-13) host the Tampa Bay Rays (14-17) on Friday, May 2. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Friday's Rays-Yankees series opener features a stellar pitching matchup as Ryan Pepiot takes on Max Fried, who enters this AL East clash with a perfect 5-0 record.
Continue reading below for my Rays vs Yankees prediction for Friday night.
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction
- Rays vs Yankees pick: Yankees -1.5 (-102, BetMGM | Play to -110)
My Rays vs Yankees best bet is on the Yankees to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Yankees Odds, Lines
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Rays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-0 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.24 / 4.61 | ERA /xERA | 1.19 / 3.59 |
| 5.27 / 3.71 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95 / 3.77 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 15.0% | K-BB% | 15.3% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 50.0% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Rays vs Yankees Preview, Prediction
Rays Betting Preview: Bats Will Keep Struggling
The Tampa Bay Rays enter this series after getting swept at home by the Kansas City Royals.
While being swept is never good, what is most concerning is that their lineup went ice cold as they mustered just three runs in the entire series.
When you look at their season-long numbers, their recent three-game stretch appears to be a fluke, but their struggles will be extended as they take on Max Fried.
Fried has been phenomenal in pinstripes, entering this outing with a 1.19 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Fried is not a flyball pitcher, so he should have a lot of success tonight against the Rays in Yankee Stadium. Fried's flyball rate for his career is just 18%, 6% below the MLB average.
In addition, the Rays have not gotten the ball in the air much this season; they have the third-highest groundball rate among MLB lineups.
Look for Fried to work efficiently through this scuffling Rays order and deliver another quality start.
Yankees Betting Preview: Expect Homers From Bombers
The Bronx Bombers come in after dropping their latest series to the Baltimore Orioles, but their bats were loud the whole way through, and we should see them live up to their nickname on a warm night.
The Yankees are the top lineup in baseball regarding contact metrics, leading all MLB lineups in barrel rate and ranking in the top three in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
This is daunting for Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot and the bullpen arms behind him.
Pepiot has not been sharp this season. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
The right-hander has allowed a great deal of hard contact and has been fortunate to navigate traffic, which is why his Expected ERA still suggests regression, with it sitting at 4.61.
However, the Yankees' offensive barrage will not stop when Pepiot departs this game.
The Rays' bullpen is due for sizable regression. They hold a combined ERA of 2.90, good for fifth among MLB bullpen units, but their 4.09 FIP tells a much different story.
The Yankees should put constant pressure on the Rays' staff tonight and pull away in this one. This effort will likely include multiple balls leaving the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Spread Pick
This is a matchup of teams trending in opposite directions.
The Yankees are firing on all cylinders and should get significant results. Meanwhile, the Rays are due to regress in multiple areas.
The weather and the ballpark will only amplify the separation on the scoreboard as the Yankees dominate this series opener and cover the run line.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-102, BetMGM | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline as the Yankees' run line offers better value.
Run Line (Spread)
I am taking the Yankees on the run line.
Over/Under
The over is worth consideration, as the Yankees' bats should be in for a big night.
