The Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers on June 13, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -120 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Rangers are +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rangers vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rangers vs Red Sox Pick: Under 8 (-112)
My Rangers vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Red Sox Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 8 -108o / -112u | +102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -108o / -112u | -120 |
- Rangers vs Red Sox moneyline: Rangers +102, Red Sox -120
- Rangers vs Red Sox over/under: 8 (-108o / -112u)
- Rangers vs Red Sox spread: Rangers -1.5 (+172), Red Sox +1.5 (-210)
Rangers vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Jacob de Grom (RHP, TEX) | Stat | Ranger Suarez (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.18 / 3.66 | ERA / xERA | 3.18 / 3.66 |
| 3.76 / 3.23 | FIP / xFIP | 2.94 / 3.60 |
| 24.5 | K-BB% | 16.7 |
| 30.2 | GB% | 36.0 |
| .247 | BABIP | .291 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 111 | Location+ | 105 |
Rangers vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Since a four-start stretch where Jacob deGrom was bitten by the home run bug, allowing 16 runs with eight home runs over 22.1 innings, he’s settled down to allow just two runs over 17 innings since, including none in his last two starts.
Even during the rough patch, the Rangers starter sustained a 21.7 K-BB% and allowed only seven barrels, meaning at least one of the home runs he allowed wasn’t even barreled.
There are finally some signs of aging on the 37-year-old. The velocity is down to 97.1 mph, his lowest mark since 2019, which was the second of his two Cy Young seasons, and his hard hit rate is up to a career worst 44.8% with his lowest ground ball rate (30.2%) as well.
All of that may naturally lead to a few more home runs, but deGrom’s 24.5 K-BB% is more than two points higher than last year and in line with his career rate (24.9%).
The xERA (3.65), FIP (3.75), and dERA (3.80) exceed three and a half this year, but his contact neutral estimators still hover around three, while deGrom has the second-best pitch modeling on the board (2.62 Bot ERA, 120 Pitching+), barely a smidge behind Tarik Skubal (2.61, 121).
There’s still more than enough left in the tank for deGrom to remain a top-of-the-rotation pitcher and one any team would be thrilled to have start a postseason game for them.
Ironically, both deGrom and Ranger Suarez have 3.18 ERAs and very similar xERAs (Suarez 3.62).
Suarez’s 36 GB% is also a career worst, but his 33 HardHit% is more in line with career rates, while his 16.7 K-BB% is similar to his last few seasons.
I have both pitchers around 3.5, though the Red Sox lefty has the more difficult matchup of the two, with the Rangers owning a 105 wRC+ on the road and just a 96 vs LHP. The projected lineup averages a 104 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 110 wRC+ against southpaws since last year.
DeGrom has it a bit better, as the Red Sox have just an 80 wRC+ at Fenway this season and 84 wRC+ vs RHP. The projected lineup has a 95 wRC+ both over the last month and against RHP since last season.
One thing to beware of is a weather forecast suggesting a significant boost to the run-scoring environment in Boston on Saturday (around 90 degrees with a light wind blowing out).
However, recent Statcast rolling three-year park factors have dropped Fenway to just four percent above average, and scheduled umpire Bill Miller is one of the most pitcher-friendly officials in the game.
Rangers vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
All of this probably gets Fenway to its previous run environment around six to eight percent above average, which is difficult, but not impossible for a pair of good pitchers to navigate, as Suarez’s results this year show.
Moving beyond the offenses and environment, a pair of quality defenses should take the field on Saturday with teams combining for 23 Runs Prevented and 26 OAA, both top third of the league, and projecting for 21 FRV even with the Rangers potentially fielding their lesser defensive unit against a LHP.
Both teams also own the top third of the league bullpen estimators over the last 30 days. The Rangers just barely so (4.02 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA), while the Red Sox have been the third-best average mark in the majors (3.45, 3.30, 3.15). BARTOLO projects Texas as the 17th-best bullpen and Boston as the 12th-best overall.
Lastly, it’s not much, but when considering an under, which you’ve probably already figured out this is (bet price currently on DraftKings 8 -107), it doesn’t hurt that both lineups combine for just a single BRR.
Pick: Under 8 (-112, FanDuel), 0.54u (Bet through 8)
