We’re in the dog days of summer, which means there is only one thing to do on a day-to-day basis. Bet home runs!
While the NFL preseason is quickly approaching and the World Cup is fully in the rearview mirror, baseball has become the central focus. We’ve got ourselves quite the stacked slate today with games starting at 12:10 p.m. ET and going all night long.
Last week, the Twins sat Byron Buxton, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. smoked a double off the wall, unfortunately just short of a home run, bringing this series to an 8-8 record, +2.37u.
I’ve circled three players for Wednesday night that I like to find the outfield bleachers, so let’s get right into it.
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
Today, three of the best home run prop prices are available at Kalshi and Polymarket.
MLB Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:45 PM | |
| 9:38 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Cubs vs. Cardinals MLB Player Prop: Pete Crow-Armstrong
I’m always hesitant to back a hitter in pitcher-friendly St. Louis, and Pete Crow-Armstrong's 396-foot flyout last night didn't help. Still, the price and matchup are too good to pass up.
PCA is playing like the NL MVP, and there’s a realistic shot he gets there with Shohei Ohtani’s rollercoaster season. After a slow start to the year, the lefty has taken off in the summer months, with 16 home runs since June.
It’s a great matchup on Wednesday night, as Crow-Armstrong draws right-hander Dustin May. Against righties this season, PCA has a .947 OPS with 23% of his hits leaving the park.
While May is having arguably his best season since 2023, there are still some concerns. Despite allowing barrels at just a 6.1% rate, he's given up a 46.1% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the bottom six percent of qualified pitchers.
May has benefited from the pitcher-friendly environment at Busch Stadium and hasn't surrendered a home run since June. Still, with most projection systems pegging him for around a 1.0-1.1 HR/9 the rest of the way, it's reasonable to expect some home run regression.
It's a favorable matchup for Crow-Armstrong, as May has struggled against left-handed hitters all season. While he's limited righties to a .226 average and .587 OPS, lefties have hit .289 with a .776 OPS against him. Five of the seven home runs he's allowed have also come to left-handed bats.
Even with the weather, this price is too long for Crow-Armstrong. I’ll happily nibble at over 4-to-1.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (17%, Kalshi)
Astros vs. Angels MLB Player Prop: Mike Trout
It’s been a down couple of weeks for Mike Trout from a power perspective, but it’s only a matter of time before the superstar finds the outfield bleachers.
From an underlying metrics perspective, there are few hitters more elite than Mike Trout in the power department. He’s in the 98th percentile of all qualified batters in xSLG (.531), xwOBA (.402) and barrel rate (18.3%).
Yet his actual slug sits down at .459 – a sign that positive regression is to come for the 34-year-old. Trout has looked more disciplined at the plate compared to last season and remains undervalued in the home run market.
This is a great spot to back Trout against right-hander Hayden Wesneski, making his first big league start since May of 2025. He underwent Tommy John surgery and has missed the subsequent 14 months.
Prior to his injury, Wesneski was a pitcher to fade in the home run market. Until he proves otherwise, I’ll look to continue that trend.
In his career, the 28-year-old has a 1.7 HR/9 rate. He relies heavily on his mid-90s fastball and often pairs that pitch with a sweeper. Well, take a look at Trout, and you see that he is one of the best four-seam hitters in baseball (+14 run value, .572 xSLG), along with an excellent +4 run value against the sweeper.
All this to say that it’s a perfect matchup for Trout to find his first home run since the All-Star break. Not only could we see some early jitters from Wesneski, but his pitch mix pairs perfectly for Trout to do some damage. Given his home run history, I’m happy to fade Wesneski in his first start back.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run (21%, Polymarket)
Red Sox vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop: Nick Kurtz
This is a pay-more-on-price than anything.
If you take a look at BallparkPal’s projections for this Wednesday slate, no game is projected to have a more positive impact due to weather than Sacramento. It’s already a little league park where pop-ups carry over the fence, and now we’re seeing a +36% home run boost? AND Kurtz is above +300?
It’s been three starts for Patrick Sandoval since his return from injury, and he’s been great all things considered. The southpaw has allowed just one barrel and has largely limited hard contact.
The biggest difference from pre-injury to now for Sandoval is his lack of ground balls. Normally a career 47.5% ground-ball rate pitcher, that number has dropped to a career-low of 34.8%. His fly-ball rate, meanwhile, has skyrocketed to 39.1%.
In a pitcher-friendly park or in colder conditions, that wouldn’t be a problem. But in a place like Sacramento, a high fly-ball rate is alarming.
So far against left-handed hitters this season, Sandoval has attacked with a slider-sinker combo nearly 90% of the time. Both of those pitches Kurtz has a +3 run value or better against.
While it’s been an extremely tough last month for the left-hander Kurtz, hitting just .133 with a .471 OPS, his price is too high for me to pass up on. His underlying metrics haven’t quivered despite the cold streak, and he remains in the 98th percentile or better of all qualified hitters in barrel rate (18.2%) and hard-hit rate (57.4%).
Sandoval is far from an elite arm, and given the price point for Kurtz in this matchup, I’m happy to go left-on-left here.
