Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, July 29.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Diamondbacks vs Pirates NRFI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- C.J. Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Braves ML
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Orioles vs Tigers NRFI
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Junior Caminero 1+ Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Stolen Bases
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Picks
The Pirates will host the Diamondbacks on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
Right-hander Jared Jones will take the mound for the Bucs, while the visiting Snakes will send out lefty veteran Eduardo Rodriguez in what sets out to be a stellar pitching matchup given the form of both starters in 2026 thus far.
In 21 outings, the 33-year-old Rodriguez has been phenomenal, ranking inside the top 10 amongst all starting pitchers with a 2.64 ERA on the season.
Jones is 24 years old and was an extremely highly-touted pitching prospect heading into the Big Leagues, yet unfortunately was forced to undergo major internal brace surgery to repair a torn UCL ligament, which resulted in him missing over a year of action.
Upon a quick return to the mound, he re-injured himself and missed some more time in 2026.
Since his return from the 15-day Injured-List (IL), Jones has been very impressive on the bump, quickly reminding everyone of his potential.
He enters Wednesday’s matchup with a 1.29 ERA in the month of July, having surrendered just three earned runs (ER) across 21 frames.
Given the exceptional form of both starters heading into this matchup, I heavily favor the no runs scored in the first inning (NRFI) option in this National League clash.
Pick: NRFI
Blue Jays vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals and Blue Jays will duke it out on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
Nationals’ 30-year-old right-hander Zack Littell will take the mound, while the Jays plan to trot out young righty Trey Yesavage in a matchup I heavily favor targeting player prop markets as opposed to sides as my primary betting angles.
In 101 frames of work on the bump in 2026, Littell has been atrocious in his first season with the team.
Across his 21 outings this season, he has recorded a concerning 5.17 ERA mark to go along with a 1.34 WHIP.
My preferred handicapping approach for Wednesday’s interleague clash will be to target Jays’ superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has absolutely dominated Littell in the two’s previous encounters.
In eight career at-bats (AB) versus the Nats’ righty, Vladdy has recorded four hits, with one of those being a home run.
In addition to his .500 AVG versus Littell, Vladdy has drawn four walks as well, which conveys some elite discipline at the plate.
According to BARTOLO, a new statistical baseball model generated by the Action Network’s Sean Zerillo, Littell heavily relies on his four-seam fastball to retire opposing hitters, which happens to be Vladdy Jr’s second-favorite pitch to hit behind a sinker.
Yet, a deeper look beyond the surface conveys that his heater has been largely ineffective despite his throwing that pitch at a 26.9% clip, as hitters are generating a concerning .414 ‘XWOBA’ (Expected Weighted On-Base Average).
Like Littell’s heater, his sinker (14.9% Usage) has generated extremely low whiff-rates (WHF%) and strikeout-rates (K%) of 12% / 6%, respectively. Also, opposing hitters have recorded a .454 ‘XWOBA’ versus Littell’s sinker in 2026 thus far.
I absolutely love Vladdy Jr. to thrive at the plate on Wednesday afternoon, and will be betting on the Jays’ slugger to exceed both his 1.5 total bases and 1.5 HRR (Hit + Runs + RBIs) marks, which will be my primary betting angles prior to this game.
For a final pick, I favor targeting Nats’ lefty slugger C.J. Abrams, who is undoubtedly the hottest hitter in all of baseball heading into Wednesday’s slate.
While the Blue Jays’ Yesavage generates high spin and heavy swing-and-miss metrics that often test aggressive hitters, C.J. exhibits elite production (.570 SLG%) and plate coverage, which make him very well-suited to handle right-handed velocity and spin profiles when Toronto’s right-hander leaves pitches elevated in the zone.
Yesavage has also been quite vulnerable to the “longball” lately, having given up three homers across his last 10 frames on the mound, which should present a prime opportunity for Abrams, who has smashed seven homers across the Nationals’ last eight games.
That said, I feel great riding C.J. to exceed his 1.5 total bases mark today, building upon his phenomenal recent form at the plate.
Picks:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- C.J. Abrams Over 1.5 TB
Braves vs Mets Picks
The New York Mets will host their divisional rival Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field in Queens. Veteran left-hander Sean Manaea will take the mound for the Mets, while Atlanta will trot out righty Grant Holmes.
In 22 appearances on the mound for the Mets in 2026 thus far, the 34-year-old Manaea has been far from reliable, with a 4.52 ERA mark throughout nearly 86 frames of work.
While he has consistently struggled to find his top form on the bump this season, his counterpart today has been fairly impressive in 2026, as Holmes enters this contest with a 3.75 ERA on the season.
Prior to the 2026 season, I placed a $300 wager on the Braves to win the World Series at +1600 odds, which should make my inclination to back Walt Weiss’ bunch to prevail on their moneyline this afternoon with quite a sizable edge on the mound not too surprising.
As a secondary betting angle, I favor targeting some Atlanta player prop markets given the form of the Mets’ lefty heading into today’s NL East clash.
In this case, I expect Braves’ superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. to have a massive day at the plate given several advantages the 28-year-old has over Manaea.
Beyond just a natural platoon edge at the plate going against a lefty, the Venezuelan is 1-for-2 in two previous encounters.
Manaea’s conventional left-handed horizontal-heavy release has fared well versus hitters who lack discipline in the box, yet has been very unsuccessful against patient hitters like Acuña Jr., whose keen eye at the plate frequently resulted in the Mets’ veteran falling behind in the count.
I expect Ronald’s career dominance against LHP with far higher slugging metrics (SLG%) and his isolated power (ISO) versus righties to result in a breaking performance on Wednesday.
Manaea walks nearly 1.35 batters per inning. Combining that with Ronald’s elite on-base percentage (.373) will carry a ton of weight in the Braves’ phenom surpassing his 1.5 HRR mark today.
Picks:
- Braves ML
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
Orioles vs Tigers Picks
The Orioles and Tigers will square off on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Comerica Park in Detroit in a game where runs may come at a premium considering the form of both starters.
Two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will take the mound for the Tigers, while the O’s plan to start fellow left-hander Trevor Rogers, who is in scorching form on the bump following a very volatile first two months of the 2026 season.
After a remarkable 2025 campaign resulted in Skubal winning his second straight Cy Young, the Tigers’ 29-year-old hit the shelf early this season, undergoing elbow surgery in May.
Since returning, Skubal has reverted to his previous elite form, recording a 2.70 ERA along with an extremely efficient 0.92 WHIP across his 15 outings in 2026 thus far.
Like his Wednesday counterpart, the O’s Rogers is fresh off a phenomenal 2025 campaign with a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across just under 104 innings of work.
Despite starting his 2026 season in atrocious form on the mound, Rogers enters Wednesday’s matchup as one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball with an impressive 1.80 ERA across nine outings throughout June and July.
As my primary betting angle ahead, I'm going with no runs scored in the first inning (NRFI) given how hot both starters are heading into this contest.
Pick: NRFI
Rangers vs Rays Picks
Tampa Bay will host the Rangers on Wednesday evening in the second of a three-game homestand at Tropicana Field.
In a pitching matchup featuring two 27-year-old left-handers, Ian Seymour is set to take the mound for the Rays, whilst Texas will trot out Mackenzie Gore.
For my primary betting angle, I favor targeting a couple of Rays player prop markets that should offer a ton of value given Gore’s volatility and sizable command issues on the mound this season.
In this case, I favor backing Rays’ superstar Junior Caminero to have a huge day at the plate, which I expect to further cement his status as a legitimate contender to win the American League MVP Award in 2026.
While Junior and Gore have yet to face one another, with the Rangers starter having spent his first four seasons in the National League, this is a spot I heavily favor the Rays' 23-year-old, who is on an absolute tear right now, ranking sixth in all of baseball with 29 homers, whilst also inside the top 20 with 63 RBIs on the season.
Per BARTOLO, Mackenzie heavily relies on his four-seam fastball, throwing it at an insanely high 45.2% clip.
Gore’s sizable preference in implementing his heater far more than any other pitch in his arsenal could prove fatal on Wednesday night, with Caminero boasting exceptional metrics versus that pitch.
Throughout the first half of his 2026 campaign thus far, he's slashing .318 AVG/ .460 OBP /.670 SLG% versus heaters.
BARTOLO indicates that Junior has recorded a sensational .477 ‘wOBA’ (Weighted On-Base Average) against fastballs, which measures a hitter’s total offensive value per plate appearance and is a far more precise representation of a player’s true run-scoring impact.
Given how frequently the volatility of Gore’s command results in his falling behind in the count, the Rangers’ lefty is often forced to throw strikes up in the zone, which feeds right into Junior’s strengths at the plate.
Caminero’s dynamic right-handed power bat punishes fastballs and elevated breaking stuff, which just so happens to be the core of Mackenzie’s primary pitch mix.
From a betting stance, I absolutely love the Rays third baseman to stay hot at the plate, hit a home run, and exceed his 1.5 total Bases line.
Picks:
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Junior Caminero 1+ Home Runs
Cubs vs Cardinals Picks
In the final MLB Leadoff segment, I will be covering the Cardinals vs. Cubs matchup, the third of a four-game divisional set at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
For my preferred betting angle, I plan to target some Cubs player prop markets given the troubling form on the mound for Cardinals right-hander Dustin May.
In three previous AB versus May, Cubs slugger Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded three hits, including a homer.
May relies heavily on his elite velocity and heavy sinker/cutter movement to generate ground balls in order to retire hitters, which is why he has been quite ineffective in his previous encounters with PCA, who has recorded exceptional contact rates at the plate in 2026.
Crow-Armstrong directly exploits May’s notable reverse splits, which have the tendency to favor left-handed hitters, particularly those with high contact and hard-hit rates.
The Cubs’ 24-year-old is in scorching form at the plate, ranking inside the top 20 in all of baseball in both batting average (.288 AVG) and OPS (.928).
PCA is also thriving from a slugging perspective with 23 homers, while driving in 60 runners (RBIs).
In a game I expect the Cubs hitters to frequent the basepaths often, I favor backing Crow-Armstrong to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark and swipe his 27th bag of the season.
Picks:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Stolen Bases
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 29
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates NRFI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- C.J. Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Braves ML
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Orioles vs Tigers NRFI
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Junior Caminero 1+ Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Stolen Bases
