The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs on July 29, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Cubs and Cardinals are evenly matched on the moneyline at -110. The Cubs are favored by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction
- Cubs vs Cardinals Pick: Cardinals Moneyline
My Cubs vs Cardinals best bet is for the Cardinals to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8 -110o / -110u | -108 |
- Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline: Cubs -108, Cardinals -108
- Cubs vs Cardinals over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Cubs vs Cardinals spread: Cubs -1.5 (+152), Cardinals +1.5 (-184)
Cubs vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| Matthew Boyd (LHP, CHC) | Stat | Dustin May (RHP, STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.81 / 4.41 | ERA / xERA | 4.59 / 3.96 |
| 3.64 / 3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 3.16 / 3.85 |
| 15.4% | K-BB% | 15.9% |
| 42.0% | GB% | 43.0% |
| .305 | BABIP | .333 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 109 | Location+ | 102 |
Cubs vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs, and he's quietly put together a solid season.
But this feels like a sell-high spot. Boyd has been running hot lately, yet St. Louis matches up better against left-handed pitching than people realize. This lineup has enough right-handed pop to make Boyd struggle tonight.
This also sets up as a classic bounce-back spot. The Cardinals got punched in the mouth Tuesday night, but that's exactly why I like them. If anything, it creates value because the market tends to overreact to what it just watched.
Chicago's offense is coming off one of its best performances of the season, while May is due for better results than his ERA indicates. That's a combination I'm willing to back.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
If you're only looking at the ERA, you're missing the bigger picture when talking about Cardinals' pitcher Dustin May. May's underlying numbers have been significantly better than the surface stats all season.
His 3.96 FIP and 3.16 xFIP both point toward positive regression, and he's done an outstanding job limiting damage by allowing just 0.61 HR/9. That's a huge number in today's game, where one mistake can flip a bet in a hurry.
The bad luck has been real. Opponents own a .333 BABIP against him while only 65.6% of baserunners have been stranded. Those numbers are well outside the norm and usually work themselves out over time.
When you combine that with nearly nine strikeouts per nine innings and solid command, this looks much more like a mid-3.00 ERA arm than the pitcher the box score suggests.
What I also like is May's pitch mix. He's attacking hitters with six different pitches, keeping hitters off balanced at all times. His cutter and slider have generated weak contact all season, and even though hitters have squared a few balls up recently, he's still done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard.
That's exactly what you want backing an under-the-radar starter against a good offensive team.
Cubs vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
Don't let last night's 10-2 beatdown fool you. This is exactly the type of spot I love buying back in St. Louis. The public just watched the Cubs mash all night, and that's usually when you can find value fading the overreaction.
Sometimes the best bets are the uncomfortable ones. Everyone remembers the blowout from last night, but I'm betting on the numbers instead of the narrative.
Give me the Cardinals at home behind a pitcher whose advanced metrics are much stronger than his ERA, and I'll gladly grab the bounce-back spot.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-108, FanDuel)
