Wednesday's slate gets started early, which means we get to bet dingers all day long.
Read on for my three MLB Home Run Picks Today for Wednesday, July 29, including picks for Blue Jays vs Nationals, Braves vs Mets, and Royals vs Twins.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:05 PM | |
| 6:45 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Blue Jays vs. Nationals Home Run Pick
Kazuma Okamoto
Home Run
This spot is one of the best in the league for power. Zack Littell is one of the biggest gas cans in the league for power, and although he's been much worse against lefties this season, he's historically been reverse splits.
Okamoto is one of the best power hitters in the league, and the weather should be above average for hitting. I have the true odds here around +270, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run
Braves vs. Mets Homer Play
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Home Run
These odds are a bit too high given the spot.
Sean Manaea is a lefty with above-average splits, and he grades out as a matchup that is well above average for righty power. Acuna has been having an off season, but he's due for significant positive regression.
I have the true odds here around +320.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run
Royals vs. Twins HR Prop
Carter Jensen
Home Run
Carter Jensen gets a plus spot, and these odds are far too high. Joe Ryan is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with splits that are higher than average, as he has allowed a high 1.68 HR/9 to lefties this season.
The weather should be good for hitting, with temps in the low-90s during game time and wind crossing to left field.
I have the true odds here under +400.
Pick: Carter Jensen Home Run
