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Thursday MLB NRFI Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back to the Well in Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

Thursday MLB NRFI Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back to the Well in Blue Jays vs. Red Sox article feature image
Credit:

Via Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman.

  • The Red Sox host the Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon at Fenway Park.
  • Both starting pitchers have strong NRFI track records, but is there any value in backing this bet here?
  • NRFI/YRFI analyst Shayne Trail breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.


Blue Jays vs. Red Sox — No Runs First Inning (-115)

Matchup Blue Jays (Gausman) vs. Red Sox (Houck)
First Pitch 1:35 p.m. ET
Books Available PointsBet

On Thursday, we will target a NRFI between two powerhouse American League teams when the Blue Jays clash with the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Tanner Houck is an unfamiliar name to most but is forming into a NRFI star. Since the start of his young career, he has posted an outstanding 1.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .153 batting average in 19 first innings pitched. He has a near perfect 18-1 NRFI record since 2020.

Houck has picked up where he left off in seasons past as he is 2-0 to the NRFI in 2022 as well. While his career is still young, he has matched up with the Blue Jays twice, resulting in a 2-0 NRFI record against them. The best NRFI split he holds is his perfect 10-0 NRFI record at home to start his career.

Houck’s potential batters (and their track records against him) in the top of the first inning include:

  • George Springer (0 for 4)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (0 for 2)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2 for 4)
  • Bo Bichette (2 for 4)

Like Houck, Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman is 2-0 to the NRFI to start off 2022, making him 28-9 since 2021.

However, Gausman is actually Mr. Road NRFI. His road NRFI split is phenomenal, which is rare to see as NRFI splits generally take a hit on the road. Since 2020 he is 17-7 to the NRFI on the road and 10-1 as a road favorite. Gausman has also been successful when facing hitters for the first time in the lineup, as they hold just a .188 batting average against him.

His potential first inning matchups set up favorably:

  • Enrique Hernandez (0 for 6)
  • Rafael Devers (1 for 8)
  • Trevor Story (2 for 15)
  • Xander Bogaerts (12 for 40)

Up until yesterday, the Red Sox had surprisingly not achieved a home YRFI yet this season despite all of their hitting potential.

Pair these two 2-0 2022 NRFI pitchers with their proficient home/road NRFI splits, and there’s value on the NRFI between the Blue Jays and Red Sox at -115 on PointsBet.

As always, six outs to glory…

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