Tigers vs Twins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 16

Tigers vs Twins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 16 article feature image

Pictured: Spencer Torkelson. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Tigers vs. Twins Odds

Wednesday, August 16
1:10 p.m. ET
Tigers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118 / -104
Twins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118 / -104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Somebody has to win the lowly AL Central, and right now it's looking like that'll be the Minnesota Twins.

At 63-58, Minnesota has the worst record of any division leader, but the Twins are the only AL Central team above .500. Detroit is nine games back but has looked much better lately.

The Tigers have played like a .500 team (14-15) since the All-Star break, but the Twins have their sights on the postseason and are pulling away from the pack.

Minnesota and Detroit conclude a mini, two-game series on Wednesday afternoon. The Twins got the win yesterday, but the Tigers have had some success in this matchup and are 7-5 against the Twins this season.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Detroit Tigers

Reese Olson, 24, is set to make his 11th career start and will already be facing the Twins for the third time.

Ranked as Detroit’s No. 11 prospect entering the season, Olson has pitched to a 4.45 ERA and a 4.78 xERA. He has shown league-average strikeout stuff, but when he misses his spot, opponents have been able to barrel the ball.

Olson has a fastball that averages 95 mph, and he pairs it well with his slider and changeup. He's struggling to get his sinker working efficiently, but he has had success with his other pitches.

A few streaky starts have raised Olson’s ERA over this small sample size, but the young pitcher has shown the ability to shut down an opponent. His slider has been nasty, allowing just a .187 batting average against and boasting a 42.8 Whiff%.

Reese Olson, Dirty 84mph Slider. 😨

6th K pic.twitter.com/a67vhLX5zT

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2023

Don’t look now, but the Tigers offense is starting to click. They rank 29th in the league with a .294 wOBA on the season but have climbed to 18th with a .312 wOBA over the past two weeks.

Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Akil Baddoo are all mashing the ball and have a wRC+ above 120 over the past two weeks. Carpenter is batting .364 with three home runs in the past six games.

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Minnesota Twins

After landing on the Injured List at the end of April, Kenta Maeda returned to the rotation at the end of June and has made 13 starts. Maeda has looked much like his old self, pitching to a 3.98 ERA and a 3.34 xERA. He has allowed just one run or fewer in seven of his 13 outings.

Maeda has been striking out batters at nearly a 30% clip with his slider and splitter combination.

His fastball has been crushed to a .298 battering average against, but his splitter has been nearly unhittable. Wisely, he is using his splitter more than ever, throwing it 30.5% of the time.

Offensively, the Twins have been rolling for the majority of the season. Minnesota is 11th in the league with a 103 wRC+ and has improved that mark to 118 over the past month. However, Minnesota has a 27% strikeout rate, the highest in the league.

Tigers vs. Twins

Betting Pick & Prediction

Olson has had success against the division leaders. In two outings, Olson is 2-0 and has allowed just one run and struck out 17 over 11 1/3 innings.

Over the past two weeks, the offensive gap between these teams has tightened. Against right-handed pitchers, the Tigers, who rank ninth in the league against in wOBA and wRC+, have been better at the plate this month.

We just saw this matchup less than a week ago and Detroit won 3-0 behind the best performance of Olson’s young career. The opening line in that game was Detroit +130 and closed around +140.

Just five days later, the Tigers opened at +150 and are available as high at +165. Why?

Even with home-field advantage, that is too much of a swing. I see value on Detroit at +165 and would play it down to +140.

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