Tigers vs. White Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pitching Matchup Lends Value (Thursday, July 7)
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease #84 of the Chicago White Sox.
- The Chicago White Sox are heavy favorites against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday evening, so you might have to look elsewhere for betting value.
- The game total is particularly intriguing due to the pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and Beau Brieske.
- MLB betting analyst Nick Shlain previews Thursday's MLB game, featuring updated odds, picks and predictions for Tigers vs. White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Tigers vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-255|
|Over/Under||8 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Despite winning their last four games, the Tigers season has already gone off the rails. Detroit’s 34-47 record is 11 games behind the division leader in the American League Central.
The Chicago White Sox (39-41) haven’t enjoyed the type of success they expected this year. Nevertheless, Chicago remains within striking distance of the playoffs at 5.5 games out of the AL Central division lead 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot.
The White Sox have had ample success against the Tigers with a 5-1 record in head-to-head matchups. Will Chicago continue its winning ways when it opens a home series with the Tigers on Thursday?
The Tigers offense ranks dead-last in MLB with 2.62 average runs per game on the road.
Dylan Cease, Thursday night’s starter for Chicago, isn’t the pitcher you expect the Tigers to improve their run scoring on the road against. Cease has a 2.51 ERA on the season.
He’s been especially good lately as he’s completed at least five innings and allowed no more than one earned run in each of his last four starts. He also has 36 strikeouts over 23 innings pitched in his last four starts.
Perhaps most importantly is that Cease has had tremendous success against the Tigers in his young career. In 11 starts and 61.1 innings against Detroit, Cease is 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 75 strikeouts.
Betting against Cease when he’s facing the Tigers doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense on paper.
Chicago White Sox
Tigers rookie Beau Brieske is 1-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 13 starts. He was forced into action after the Detroit rotation was hit with injuries to starters Casey Mize and Matt Manning. Brieske has modestly improved in his last six starts, boasting a 3.78 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 33.1 innings.
Chicago’s lineup largely hasn’t clicked due to injures. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez returned to the lineup Wednesday, but third baseman Yoan Moncada left the game with a foot injury.
Moncada’s status for Thursday night’s game is up in the air. With or without Moncada, Chicago doesn’t have a single hitter in its projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
Brieske has allowed more than three earned runs only twice in his last six starts.
Tigers-White Sox Pick
The White Sox likely will win this game behind a good pitching performance by Dylan Cease, who seemingly beats the Tigers every time he faces them.
Unfortunately, there’s no value on the White Sox, because they are already priced-up as big favorites. That shifts my target to the Chicago offense, which ranks 18th in runs per game at home (4.15), against Beau Brieske who has pitched well since the start of June.
Give me the under 8.5 (-110) at Draftkings as Cease beats the Tigers again but Brieske does his best to keep them in the game.
Pick: Under 8.5