Tigers vs. Yankees Betting Odds & Picks: Target Saturday’s Total
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees.
- The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in a Saturday matinee.
- Luis Severino gets the ball for New York and Beau Brieske will start for the Tigers.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Tigers vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Luis Severino and the New YorkYankees host Detroit Tigers in Saturday’s matinee matchup in New York. The Tigers will start Beau Brieske, one of their top prospects who has had a rough go of it to begin his career.
In the last month, the Yankees have crushed right-handed pitching with a wRC+ mark of 117, while the Tigers have struggled immensely with a 71. However, the top of their lineup has seen some recent success in the last week, and even if Severino has encouraging peripherals, they should be able to string together some baserunners.
Let’s break down how to bet the over/under in Saturday’s matchup.
The Tigers’ Pitching Staff Is Vulnerable
Brieske does one thing well, and it is limiting some hard contact. However, he is about league average in Exit Velocity, while being amongst the bottom 10% of the MLB in crucial categories. For example, he has a 5.25 ERA against a 6.10 xERA. The xSLG against him is abhorrent at .583. The Yankees should be able to feast early.
Now, the Yankees are missing Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rortvedt, and Tim Locastro. They have five other hitters on the roster with at least a .340 xwOBA. Even if some key contributors are on the injured list, they have enough artillery to work with against a subpar starting pitcher. Aaron Judge is one name to watch in this game because he has a .539 xwOBA in the last two weeks off of right-handers.
The Tigers bullpen has had their weak spots. Gregory Soto has a 5.68 xFIP, and Michael Fulmer comes in at 5.06. Jacob Barnes has been over the 4.00 mark, too. This should be enough of an issue, especially if the Yanks can get to Brieske early. The Tigers will, in turn, need to utilize nearly every piece they can at that point.
Injuries Could Impact Yankees Bullpen
Luis Severino is about as strong as they come. His 2.70 xERA is elite. He does, however, rank in the middle of the league in Hard Hit Percentage. The Tigers, on the other hand, rank dead last in Hard Hit Percentage at only 34%. They will need to step this up against one of the Yankees best hurlers.
That said, they have five bats over the .325 xwOBA mark. Austin Meadows, Robbie Grossman, and Victor Reyes are sidelined, but they have enough bats to keep them competitive and push a few runs across the plate.
In addition, in the past two weeks, Harold Castro, like Judge has caught fire (.540 xwOBA). He could provide a much-needed boost to this lineup against Severino and the New York relief corps.
Chad Green is one member of the Yankee bullpen this team will sorely miss, now that he has landed on the 60-Day IL with Stephen Ridings, Zach Britton, and Domingo Germán. They have some weak spots in the bullpen, though. Aroldis Chapman sports a 6.67 xFIP and 11.57 ERA in the last month.
Ron Marinaccio, Lucas Luetge, and Clarke Schmidt all have posted a 4.00+ xFIP, as well. Jonathan Loáisiga has also been shaky at times this season. The Tigers could find some opportunities for late inning runs.
There should be many early runs in this game, especially from the Yankees’ side of the box score. Brieske is having trouble in the bigs, and the Tigers have been doing better as of late.
Each bullpen has some sore spots, too, and if the Yankees at least get into the Detroit bullpen early, Manager A.J. Hinch will be forced to throw some arms he would rather not.
Take this over at 8 and play to 8.5 (-120).
Pick: Over 8
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