We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Scranton Rail Ridres @ Indianapolis Indians
Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
It’s going to be interesting to see how Scranton gets priced in this series.
On one hand, Scranton had an average first half, finishing 37-37, struggling down the stretch once Spencer Jones got called up and Yanquiel Fernandez got hurt.
On the other hand, Scranton usually gets love from the books, and Indianapolis had a terrible first half.
But Scranton is also on the road here, which could keep the Rail Riders' prices favorable in this series.
Scranton is a target for me because Yanquiel Fernandez is now back, and the Yankees sent a couple of their better players from Double-A Somerset to Scranton over the last couple of weeks.
Garrett Martin and Tyler Hardman join their buddy George Lombard Jr. (called up a couple of months ago) in Scranton, along with productive Triple-A guys like Oswaldo Cabrera and Marco Luciano.
On paper, this is a productive Scranton lineup, which is notable because the Rail Riders have one of the better pitching staffs in all of Triple-A entering play this week.
Carlos Lagrange and Elmer Rodriguez are getting the attention from a prospect standpoint, but it’s Brendan Beck that has been the best one of late, and you really can’t go wrong with any of these three.
Joining the rotation going forward is Alexander Cornielle, who had a solid season in the Brewers organization last year. Cornielle was hurt to start the season but has completed his rehab and will make his second Triple-A start of the season on Tuesday.
I’m not dying to back Adam Kloffenstien or Dom Hamel, but Lagrange, Elmer, Beck, or even Cornielle at a cheap enough price, especially if the top bullpen arms are available, will more than likely make my card this week.
Pick: Scranton Rail Riders ML
Oklahoma City Comets @ Reno Aces
Tuesday, 9:35 PM ET
We have overvalued against undervalued in this matchup, but I’m looking for a good spot to jump in with Reno.
Oklahoma City came a couple of games away from winning the Pacific Coast League, while Reno finished near the bottom, so I don’t think we will have trouble finding value on the Aces.
That being said, Oklahoma City still has a very solid lineup, and Reno still lacks pitching, so the game plan here is to wait for a spot where the Aces' pitching is respectable, or find a spot where both teams have poor pitchers and back the Over.
The latter might make the most sense because, aside from River Ryan, there really isn’t another Oklahoma City pitcher I won’t play against. You can say the same thing for Reno, but the difference is that Oklahoma City will get priced as a big favorite all week, despite being on the road in a relatively similar pitching matchup.
Like Scranton, Reno gets a massive boost from a couple of recent Double-A call-ups, and it’s possible Max Kepler continues his rehab assignment. Manuel Pena has been one of the best players in all of Minor League Baseball this season, absolutely raking for Double-A Amarillo, and his teammate Danny Serretti has come up with him to give this Reno lineup some much-needed juice. Ryan Wladschmidt has been one of the best players in Triple-A this season, and he’s hit the ball well since being sent back down to Reno.
As I type, I see that Teoscar Hernandez will play a few games with Oklahoma City this week, though, given his position, he could bump one of the other big bats from the Comets' lineup.
Regardless, the value should be on Reno this week in what figures to be a high-scoring series.
Pick: Reno Aces ML | Over
Las Vegas Aviators @ Sacramento River Cats
Tuesday, 9:45 PM ET
Interesting timing for this series because, while these two teams didn’t play each other last week, they battled it out in the standings with Las Vegas beating out Sacramento by 1.5 games to win the Pacific Coast League first Half and clinch a playoff spot.
We saw Las Vegas do this last year and play terribly in the second Half, some of which was caused by the A’s calling up all of their good players, but there was probably some natural letdown knowing they were already going to the Championship Series regardless of what happened the rest of the way.
Las Vegas is still excellent on paper, but it recently lost Joey Meneses to a call-up, and he’s been arguably the Aviators' best hitter.
I also think Sacramento will be motivated to start the second Half strong after a disappointing finish to their series in Oklahoma City that saw them squander a lead and lose out on the first-half title.
Sacramento went 42-30 in the first Half but probably would have won easily had the Giants promoted the Double-A Richmond contingent earlier. The Cats really took off once Matt Wilkinson, Turner Hill, Joe Whitman, and Scott Bandura were promoted, and when you add Wilkinson and Whitman to Carson Whisenhunt and Blade Tidwell, the River Cats easily have the best starting staff in the PCL.
Las Vegas clinched on Saturday and partied all weekend (there’s footage of this) to celebrate another playoff berth. It would not surprise me at all to see the Aviators a little sluggish in Sacramento this week.
Pick: Sacramento River Cats ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Scranton ML (@ Indianapolis, 7:05 PM ET)
- Reno Aces ML (vs. Oklahoma City, 9:35 PM ET)
- Oklahoma City @ Reno Over (9:35 PM ET)
- Sacramento ML (vs. Las Vegas, 9:45 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
