Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, June 23.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks +101 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
Astros vs Blue Jays Picks
Dylan Cease pitched Yordan Alvarez quite carefully in Monday's series opener, and it seems logical to expect what may be a fairly rusty version of Shane Bieber to do the same Tuesday.
Thanks in part to Aaron Judge's lengthy absence, Alvarez is currently priced at -150 to win the AL MVP, having slugged .639 with an OPS of 1.070 this season. He's done all he can to keep the depleted Astros lineup in the playoff race, but other key bats such as Christian Walker have been fairly stagnant of late.
Alvarez holds a ridiculous 1.137 OPS versus righties this season — he slugged .652. Right-handed pitchers have walked Alvarez 18.4% of the time, and are seemingly becoming more aware of the fact that in most situations, it's safer to pitch to anybody else.
Bieber walked 2.65 batters per nine throughout his five rehab appearances, and though for a veteran of Bieber’s caliber, rehab appearances aren’t entirely indicative of anything, that mark is still encouraging for this prop. In six PAs against Bieber, Alvarez holds an OPS of 1.467 and has walked once, so though it’s a small sample, Bieber may not feel overly comfortable giving the dominant slugger much to work with.
Christian Walker has slugged just .370 with a .205 batting average in June, so if he is behind Alvarez in the order once again, Toronto will likely feel compelled to take its chances with Walker as opposed to Alvarez.
At -110 or better, there appears to be value backing the dominant slugger to walk at some point in Tuesday's matinee.
Picks: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks (+101 — DraftKings, Play to -110)
Phillies vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals have wisely opted to employ PJ Poulin as an opener in front of Zack Littell today to help ensure their struggling starter, who has been torched by lefties this season, won't have to handle the Phillies' dominant lefties three times in this matchup.
Even still, Littell presents as a highly unconvincing option on a day when runs could be at a premium for the Nats as they face off against red-hot lefty Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has been a streaky pitcher throughout his tenure with the Phillies, but when he's on, he has the stuff to be among the league's best.
Luzardo is in the midst of a pretty lengthy run of dominance, as throughout his last ten starts he's pitched to an ERA of 2.93 and an xERA of 2.95. He's struck out 26.4% of batters in that span, allowed an xBA of .217, and holds a Pitching+ rating of 112.
Lefties have slugged .652 versus Littell this season, and he's allowed an FIP of 8.83 versus them. He holds a Stuff+ rating of just 83 and has allowed a hard-hit rate of 45.5% to go alongside a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 5.8%.
The Nationals' bullpen has struggled to a 4.51 ERA and 5.09 xFIP over the last 30 days and offers some notably poor options outside of the few respectable high-leverage arms.
Between the combination of a lofty offensive output from the Phillies or another excellent showing from Luzardo, I'm high on the chances that the Phillies can cover the run-line in this matchup and would bet it down to -116.
Picks: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 23
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks +101 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
