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Twins vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Minnesota as Live Underdog (Wednesday, August 10)

Twins vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Minnesota as Live Underdog (Wednesday, August 10) article feature image
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David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Sonny Gray.

  • The Dodgers go up against the Twins in Wednesday's Major League Baseball contest.
  • Sonny Gray takes the mound for the Twins, who analyst Kenny Ducey thinks is a live underdog ahead of this showdown.
  • Check out below why he's backing Minnesota to win the game.

Twins vs. Dodgers Odds

Twins Odds +170
Dodgers Odds -205
Over/Under 9 (-105 / -115)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Dodgers will go for a 10th consecutive win Thursday, but in their way will stand Sonny Gray and the Minnesota Twins. The Twins might not be running as hot as the Dodgers, but they’re staying in the fight for AL Central supremacy.

With a lot on the line for Minnesota and an uncertain pitching matchup for Los Angeles, might we take a nibble on the underdog here? Let’s dig into the numbers and see what we can uncover ahead of this showdown.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have now lost two in a row, but luckily have have their stopper on the hill. In eight starts following a loss this season, Gray has led the team to five wins, including a big one over another NL West giant in the Padres just two starts ago.

Gray has now allowed just two runs in his last three outings, which span 16 innings, and he’s yet to allow more than one run in any of them.  He did walk five his last time out against the Blue Jays, but his walk rate for the season remains one of the best of his career at just 7.4%, which is 1% better than league average.

Aside from that, the right-hander has been pretty steady this season with a 3.47 xERA and an above-average .340 xwOBA on contact. We should note that his ground ball rate is way down this season, but it’s not as if there’s been a massive increase in fly balls or line drives. Weirdly enough, those ground balls have been mostly traded in for pop-ups.

Los Angeles Dodgers

We can’t say enough good things about the Dodgers these days. The owners of a 140 wRC+ in the last two weeks, Los Angeles has done it all despite hitting just 14 homers. It’s been good at-bats that have gotten the team to this point, highlighted by a 19.1% strikeout rate, though a walk rate of 7.1% pales in comparison to the numbers we’ve seen all year long.

Still the Dodgers are putting the bat on the ball in a big way with a .201 ISO in that span, hitting for plenty of doubles. Joey Gallo is slowly starting to look like a big-league hitter again, and Cody Bellinger has turned into a legitimate weapon at the bottom of the order. The Dodgers have Justin Turner back in the fold as well, and he returned in style on Tuesday with a multi-hit game.

As for starter Ryan Pepiot, I’m not quite sure what to think. He’s only pitched in 16 1/3 innings to this point, allowing fly balls at an alarming 31.6% rate with a below-average 26.3% line drive rate as well. Getting more ground balls will be imperative to his success.

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Twins-Dodgers Pick

It could be difficult for Pepiot to turn the tide here considering Minnesota ranks 13th in fly ball rate this year and eighth in home run-to-fly ball ratio. The Twins are right around league average in the last couple of weeks, but this matchup could make them look better than that.

The Twins have a winning record with Gray on the bump following a loss, and they also are 31-19 on the moneyline following all losses this season, regardless of the starting pitcher. Despite the heater the Dodgers are on, it’s hard for me to see them overcoming the potential issues Pepiot could run into with a talented Twins offense.

Pick: Twins ML (+140)

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