Twins vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trends Point to Minnesota Winning on the Road (Monday, May 30)

Twins vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trends Point to Minnesota Winning on the Road (Monday, May 30) article feature image

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton

  • The Twins travel to Detroit to open up a series against the Tigers.
  • Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Twins, and although his numbers aren't great, he has pitched better than they indicate.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Twins vs. Tigers Odds

Twins Odds-165
Tigers Odds+145
Over/Under8.5 (-110/-110)
Time1:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this five-game AL Central intradivisional series as the Detroit Tigers host the Minnesota Twins. This is the seventh meeting between these two teams this season and the Twins have won five of the first six matchups.

Will the Twins come away victorious once again, or can the Tigers pull off the upset on their home diamond?

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Minnesota Twins: Bundy Pitching Better Than Numbers Indicate

The Minnesota Twins enter this series in great form as they have won 10 of their past 14 games (71%). Of those 14 contests, the Twins have won eight games by at least two-runs (57%).

I expect these trends to continue as right-hander Dylan Bundy is slated to take the mound for Minnesota. We are getting great value with Minnesota in this matchup because Bundy has poor surface-level numbers.

Through seven starts, Bundy possesses a 4.54 ERA and 1.277 WHIP. Despite these below-average numbers, Bundy's metrics suggest positive regression is looming.

Bundy boasts a .285 xwOBA, .233 BA and a .374 xSLG. In his lone start against the Tigers this season, Bundy allowed just one run on five hits through 5 2/3 innings.

Bundy should get plenty of run support as the Twins are slated to go against right-hander Beau Brieske. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, the Twins rank 12th in the league in BA, 14th in SLG, 11th in OPS and 11th in wOBA.

Through 14 career plate appearances against Brieske, this current Twins lineup boasts a .308 BA, .385 SLG and .332 wOBA. While this is obviously a very small sample size, it does further illuminate the Twins' success against right-handed pitchers.

Detroit Tigers: Will Struggles Against RHP Continue?

The Detroit Tigers enter this contest in poor form as they have lost six of their past 10 games. Of those 10 games, the Tigers have lost five contests by at least two runs.

As I mentioned above, Brieske is slated to take the mound for Detroit. This season, Brieske is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.385 WHIP through six starts.

Brieske's metrics are just as poor as his surface-level stats. He possesses a .394 xwOBA, .304 xBA and a .575 xSLG. Brieske may not get much run support in this game as the Tigers are slated to go against Bundy.

When facing right-handed pitchers this season, the Tigers rank just 29th in the league in BA, 30th in SLG, 29th in OPS and 29th in wOBA. Through 75 career plate appearances against Bundy, this current Tigers roster possesses a mere .197 BA, .282 SLG, and .233 wOBA.

Twins-Tigers Pick

I see no reason not to back the Twins in this contest. They have a better starting pitcher, better lineup and better historical matchups.

The Tigers have struggled against Bundy and right-handed pitchers all year, while the Twins have had great success against right-handers. I am backing the trends in this matchup as the Twins have had great success against Detroit all year.

Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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