The Milwaukee Brewers host the Washington Nationals on April 11, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Brewers are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction
- Nationals vs Brewers Pick: Under 8 (-115 or Better)
My Nationals vs Brewers best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Brewers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8 -110o / -110u | -178 |
- Nationals vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+114), Nationals +1.5 (-137)
- Nationals vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Nationals vs Brewers moneyline: Nationals +150, Brewers -178
Nationals vs Brewers Pitchers
| Foster Griffin (LHP) | Stat | Kyle Harrison (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.70 / 6.35 | ERA / xERA | 2.61 / 3.35 |
| 4.75 / 3.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 2.83 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 18.6% | K-BB% | 26.8% |
| 32.1% | GB% | 27.3% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 97 | Location+ | 113 |
Nationals vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Our own Sean Zerillo projects a decent edge on the Under in this matchup.
While the consensus line sits around 8, Zerillo projects under 7.3 runs for this game, representing a nearly 4% edge against the market.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Nationals vs Brewers Picks
A few years ago, I wrote an article about Kyle Harrison for PitcherList. I was diving into how flat fastballs work well when thrown with a specific arm angle.
Harrison throws a relatively flat fastball (13.6-inch iVB, 24th percentile), but with a super-low arm slot, helping him throw it with a lower approach angle. This helps his fastball play up despite its underwhelming stuff, mostly because it spends most of its time not in the traditional swing path.
The Brewers saw this, acquired Harrison, and worked their developmental wonders. His fastball velocity is now up two ticks (95 MPH), and his advanced pitching model metrics are also up significantly (105 Stuff+, 113 Location+, 113 Pitching+). As a result, he's running a 2.61 ERA and 2.83 xFIP through 10 innings so far, behind a whopping 34% strikeout rate.
Suffice it to say, I'm always interested in betting Brewers Unders with Harrison on the mound.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 or Better)
