The San Diego Padres host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 11, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are -104 on the moneyline. The Padres are -112 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Padres Pick: Blue Jays ML (-110 or Better)
My Blue Jays vs Padres best bet is on Toronto. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Padres Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -106o / -114u | -104 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -106o / -114u | -112 |
- Blue Jays vs Padres moneyline: Blue Jays -104, Padres -112
- Blue Jays vs Padres over/under: 8 (-106 / -114)
- Blue Jays vs Padres spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+158), Padres +1.5 (-192)
Blue Jays vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Trey Yesavage (RHP, TOR) | Stat | Walker Buehler (RHP, SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.31 / 3.11 | ERA / xERA | 5.07 / 4.46 |
| 3.88 / 4.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.12 / 3.94 |
| 12.1% | K-BB% | 13.1% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 48.1% |
| .212 | BABIP | .317 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 89 | Location+ | 100 |
Blue Jays vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.1% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across several consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced, likely due to a lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
Blue Jays vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m going to keep fading Walker Buehler until I can’t.
He’s a mess. He can’t miss bats anymore (8% swinging-strike rate, 30% chase rate), which isn’t a good combination with his below-average batted-ball profile.
Meanwhile, Trey Yesavage is still a very high-upside arm with his nasty secondary stuff (109 Stuff+), which forces an excellent combination of whiffs (13% swinging-strike rate) and weak contact (3.11 xERA).
If you’d like a deeper dive into this matchup, I’d check out BARTOLO, Sean Zerillo’s new PRO baseball betting tool, which gives all our PRO subscribers access to the data he uses to project games every day.
Dig into the tool, and you’ll see Zerillo projects the Blue Jays as the slightly better lineup and the much better defense.
And even if the Padres have the better bullpen, these are two top-five corps league-wide. Plus, the Jays have been the much-better unit over the past two weeks (TOR 2.97 SIERA, SDP 4.64 SIERA).
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-110 or Better)
