The Minnesota Twins (50-53) and Washington Nationals (41-62) will meet in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MNNT.
Minnesota is a -238 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +191 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Nationals vs Twins predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 26, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Twins Prediction
- Nationals vs Twins pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
My Twins vs. Nationals best bet is on the under 8.5 total runs, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Twins Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -111 | 8.5 -121o / 100u | +191 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -109 | 8.5 -121o / 100u | -238 |
Nationals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) | Stat | RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-10 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 5.00/5.51 | ERA / xERA | 2.63/3.08 |
| 4.58/5.10 | FIP / xFIP | 3.13/3.49 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 0.90 |
| 6.1% | K-BB% | 24.1% |
| 37.1% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Nationals vs Twins Preview, Pick
Game 1 of the series ended in a 1-0 Twins win — a classic low-scoring result that sets up one of the most consistently profitable spots for under bettors: the "Under After Low Scoring Game in Series, Short Term" system.
This model, developed by Evan Abrams, focuses on MLB regular season matchups where both teams are coming off games scoring 0 to 2 runs in the same series. These matchups often feature either strong pitching performances or cold offenses, but the betting market doesn't always adjust the total accordingly — especially in today’s lower-scoring environment.
When the setup aligns like it does here, the under has delivered reliable short-term returns across recent seasons.
On the mound, Mitchell Parker (Nationals) faces Joe Ryan (Twins), two starters capable of quieting opposing bats. Add in a sluggish offensive showing from both clubs in Game 1, and there’s every reason to expect another tight, low-scoring contest.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
Nationals vs Twins Betting Trends
